Trump vs Biden, McConnell Successor: What Are the Odds?

Show Transcript

Who Replaces McConnell? Trump vs Biden? What are the Odds?

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: Long time Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, who has represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, has announced that he'll step down from his leadership post in November, and so the race is on to replace him, making for one of the most intriguing political stories of the year. Aside from the presidential election, of course, and the battle for control of Congress itself.

[00:00:25] What's going to happen? Who better to ask than a veteran professional, political gambler, odds maker, and analyst? That's who we have with us today. All the way from England, so don't go away. 

[00:00:42] We welcome to the podcast Paul Krishnamurty, political Odds Maker and analyst for BET online.ag. Paul began betting on politics in the UK in 2001 and in the US on 2008, and he tells me that's basically the way he earns his living as being a gambler, which just amazes me that he can do that.

[00:01:09] Anyway, he's been an analyst for Betfair, the world's largest betting exchange, and since 2020, he's been the political odds maker for BetOnline. ag. So Paul, welcome to the Lean to the Left podcast, my friend. 

[00:01:27] Paul Krishnamurty: Thanks for having me on, Bob. 

[00:01:28] Bob Gatty: Hey, since we opened with the tease about Mitch McConnell, let's talk about that.

[00:01:33] Looks like we have three Johns. All white guys in their 60s, Cornyn of Texas, Thune of South Dakota, and Barrasso of Wyoming leading the race to succeed him. What are the odds of that Paul? 

[00:01:49] Paul Krishnamurty: When we first opened the betting it was pretty much a three or four run race between those three plus Steve Daines.

[00:01:56] Yeah. It has become clear for, at least from news reports that John Barrasso will probably run for number two and that Steve Daines, who was the fourth man, he's probably not gonna run for it. So it looks like a match between John Cornin and John Thune. Now, We won't know this until after the election, of course, so much could change in the meantime, other people come into it.

[00:02:23] At the moment, we're odds of plus 110 for each of the two main ones. So in percentage terms, that's like a 46%, 47 percent chance. On calling and few right and then we would have Barrasso at 12 to one, so an 8 20s, a 5 percent chance. 

[00:02:46] Bob Gatty: Okay. All right. So Barrasso is pulled back. He's saying he's only gonna run for the second slot.

[00:02:55] Paul Krishnamurty: It looks that way. Yes, that's what was asked. At least that's all the reports are saying that I'm read. Of course, interesting thing is that were it. He's a run for it. I thought he would have a pretty good chance because he's seen the most pro Trump out of the three and, with many elections in the Republican party going to non Trump endorsements, but it doesn't, apparently it's going to be calling off him.

[00:03:20] Bob Gatty: How is it that, you're in the UK, so what is it that you're so involved with US politics? What is that? I

[00:03:29] Paul Krishnamurty: think, you know, I think. You have to, I get why that is a difficult question for Americans, but if you came here and watched the news, or I suspect anywhere in the world, there's nothing like U. S. politics. It's the only game in town.. American elections are the most compelling, widely covered, entertaining contests. For me, look, I'm a politico, right? I studied politics university. I love subjects. I could talk about it all day, right? And I follow it all over the world.

[00:04:04] Okay. But when I started betting on it, for example, I'd never lived through an American election. And then I lived through 20, 2004 primaries. I didn't bet on it. I just watched and I was just lost. It was like, what, nine months, ten months out, and there's all this drama about who will be the candidates, and who's up and who's down, and, it was just enthralling, and to take, say, the last election look, for me, it's become a way of life to just follow American politics all day long.

[00:04:39] But for my friends who aren't, especially political or anything, they were glued to CNN for two weeks. And they were like, Oh, now I get it. Now I get that's why you watch that. It's just unbelievable. Yeah. So everything about it from the drama, from the circus, but also the way the results come in.

[00:04:59] The way that results from that war by district, it's so exciting. 

[00:05:02] Bob Gatty: It is exciting. Absolutely. I've been involved in politics for years myself as a journalist mostly. And recently I've been helping the local democratic party here. I live in South Carolina, which is, A red state, a Republican state and the Democrats have a tough time and I've been helping them out with communications work for the last few years since I moved here.

[00:05:30] Now, if I, I know Paul that you would never ever lay down a bet on anything like who is going to be the next Republican leader of the Senate. But if you were to do that, if you were, who would you pick and why? 

[00:05:49] Paul Krishnamurty: I think Cornyn, because from what I gather, and believe me, this is a difficult market for me, because this is all behind closed doors stuff, it's what people are saying.

[00:06:04] But Thune is he's anti Trump, he's used to, I know he's not, I know he's coming, he's fallen into line, as they do, but he was anti Trump, he was very critical of Trump, and that generally seems to be like a a suicide note for Republicans. 

[00:06:20] Bob Gatty: Yeah, like a kiss of death. Yeah. Yeah, either you support Trump or go away, that's pretty much it.

[00:06:26] Yeah. Yeah. Now so let's go to Trump. We're you're talking about Trump. He lucked out the other day when a judge in New York cut that fraud bond that he had to pay from 464 million to 175 million. And he gave him an extra 10 days to come up with that money. Now until that happened, some were betting that Tru Trump would be forced to declare bankruptcy. And I think I saw on some stuff you sent me that you had, you guys actually had odds on that. What do you think about that now? Yeah 

[00:07:03] Paul Krishnamurty: So just to go through the history of that, I thought a month ago that it was inevitable. It would be declared, but he would declare bankruptcy because he can't pay doesn't have that money.

[00:07:15] And as much as like he might want to get money from whatever source that's a bit half a billion is a bit too much. Yeah. We took a lot of money though on him not declaring bankruptcy and that was forced into. Yeah. So that was forced in favor of it. That is now a 75 percent chance as opposed to 33 that it does.

[00:07:39] Now, again, the fact that they have reduced the amount he needs to pay makes it difficult. even less likely. And then I noticed yesterday that he's now selling Trump endorsed Bibles for 60 dollars a crack. 

[00:07:54] Bob Gatty: Has Trump endorsed Bibles? 

[00:07:57] Paul Krishnamurty: Yes, he's, he's encouraging his followers. 

[00:07:59] Bob Gatty: I didn't see that. So on top of the, on top of his golden high top sneakers, he's got Trump Bibles?

[00:08:09] Paul Krishnamurty: Yes, 60 a crack. 

[00:08:11] Bob Gatty: 60 bucks a crack for a Trump Bible. Yeah. Yeah. Oh my God. 

[00:08:15] Paul Krishnamurty: Now, Simple maths here, if three million of his supporters buy a Trump endorsed Bible, there's his bond money.

[00:08:23] Bob Gatty: Excuse me, people, I just don't, I, that I just cannot get over. Here is the most nasty, sinful human being that ever walked the face of the frickin earth, and he's selling Bibles? Are you kidding me?

[00:08:44] Paul Krishnamurty: You've got to therefore think, if they've already managed to get the bond reduced to a third Yeah. It's not going to go bankrupt. This is going to just carry on and it'll get paid by somebody. See? Maybe a lot of muscle pay it forward. 

[00:08:58] Bob Gatty: I, and the other day I figured out how many pairs of his 400 shoes he would have to sell in order to come up with the 500 million or whatever it was that he had to come up with, there was a lot of shoes.

[00:09:15] And of course you don't know what the Production costs are so what his profit would be. So it was even more, but now the amount of shoes he would have to sell could be reduced by the number of Bibles that he sells. 

[00:09:32] Paul Krishnamurty: And he's also got this extremely Strange merger of Truth Social. Yeah. Extraordinary amount of money that doesn't seem to make much sense. So I think he's going to get the money from someone.

[00:09:47] Bob Gatty: Oh, man. Trump Bibles. Oh, man. Is he going to hold it upside down like he did when he was standing outside of that church? Oh, in Washington, proving that he read the Bible and he held it upside down. Anyway, all man, I've lost all my, I've lost my place. I don't even know what I'm doing here. The federal case involving the January 6th insurrection that's being led by prosecutor Jack Smith.

[00:10:17] Do you think Trump is going to get convicted? Have you got odds on that? 

[00:10:20] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, we have. We've got number of guilty counts. Yeah. We've got my odds of minus one, three, five, he's found guilty on all four counts. 

[00:10:32] Bob Gatty: What does that mean? 

[00:10:33] Paul Krishnamurty: That means approximately 58 percent likelihood. We've got plus one. 

[00:10:40] Bob Gatty: You said 58 percent likelihood that he gets convicted?

[00:10:45] Paul Krishnamurty: Yes. This one, I'm assuming that it goes ahead. Yeah. It would be bets for it if the thing didn't go ahead, but this is the one in DC. Huh. Indeed. Reading that indictment. It looked a pretty open and shut case. I thought Jack Smith went for the bare minimum. We know we can get you on this.

[00:11:05] And we'll leave the bigger detail to Fannie Willis in Georgia. I would have that, and The Arrows give it only an 18 percent chance that he has zero guilty counts before. 

[00:11:17] Bob Gatty: Okay. Do you think he's going to go to prison? 

[00:11:22] Paul Krishnamurty: I don't. So we've got two markets there. We've got to be convicted and served jail time in, before 2025.

[00:11:30] There, we give only a 9 percent chance that he goes to prison before next year. Okay. And We give like a 97 percent chance that he doesn't. Okay. But we've got before 2026, that's a more open market. There, we give him a 33 percent chance that he is convicted and serves jail time before 2026, and a 75 percent chance no.

[00:11:54] Bob Gatty: That's for which of the 

[00:11:56] Paul Krishnamurty: charges? That's just to be convicted and serve jail time for anything. Oh, for anything. I have to say, my personal view here though, is one, because first of all, come on, look, whether he deserves it or not, whether the crime warrants prison or not, that would be one hell of an explosive thing for a judge to do.

[00:12:21] Secondly, I'm, I think he's going to try and claim ill health. Oh, do you? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think I'm a bit look, Trump knows what he's doing. He's not, Trump's saying a lot of crazy things at the moment, really. I know he always says crazy things, but getting Nikki Haley mixed up with Nancy Pelosi, that's too mad to be true, right?

[00:12:46] And I can't help but think that could be used to get him Yeah 

[00:12:51] Bob Gatty: If he claims that, That runs counter to his charge that Biden is not mentally fit, right? That

[00:13:00] Paul Krishnamurty: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. But we're probably looking here at stuff that would happen after the election. He's done such a good job in delaying this.

[00:13:12] It increasingly looks like the only trial he's going to face is the Stormy Daniels trial. Yeah. I doubt, I very much doubt that would result in a prison sentence anyway. 

[00:13:23] Bob Gatty: And You know I had a guy, I had a guy on my show the other day who pointed out the difficulty of having the Secret Service protecting him in a prison.

[00:13:37] Paul Krishnamurty: Oh surely you would thought, yeah, he would be, he would have to have his own wing or something. Yeah, 

[00:13:42] Bob Gatty: Think about that though. Yeah. You've got the convict who would be Trump, he'd be in prison and you would have his guards, the Secret Service people. They would also be in prison because they have to go there to protect the guy.

[00:14:02] So these poor son of a, these poor people who've done nothing in their whole life except protect the president or other high officials and they've been good people, they got to go to jail. Yeah, look, 

[00:14:21] Paul Krishnamurty: it's enough of a reason to think it's not, but I just don't really find it very plausible, the idea that he does it, not a man of his idea anyway, right?

[00:14:29] And he's not you're going to struggle to find a case that he's a physical threat to anybody out of prison. Trump's threat, the threat that he poses, if he poses any threat, is a rhetorical threat. I don't think they would imprison someone for that.

[00:14:46] Okay, 

[00:14:48] Bob Gatty: good point. Now, what are the odds that either Trump or Biden or both will be replaced by their party as their, as the party's nominee? 

[00:15:00] Paul Krishnamurty: Very unlikely now. In Trump's case 99 percent likely to be the candidate. And we give a 5 percent chance if anyone wants a bet on there being anyone else.

[00:15:09] So 20 to 1 on anyone. In Biden's case, it's 6 to 1. So a 14 percent chance I don't think that's going to last very long either. I think that'll be more like 10 to 1 before the end of the week because each day is ticking. We did take a lot of money earlier, but there was a, Michelle Obama was very popular as was Gavin Newsom.

[00:15:31] Okay. But I think, Biden's had some improving polls as well. It just looks more and more solid that he's going to be the candidate. 

[00:15:40] Bob Gatty: Okay. Do you see Nikki Haley as a viable candidate to replace Trump?

[00:15:46] If the guy gets convicted of any of these crimes, and his pace is weakened, and they go into the convention is Nikki waiting in the wings to be the anointed one if that happens? I 

[00:16:00] Paul Krishnamurty: have no doubt that, that was the original aim, the thinking behind her and DeSantis. Certainly DeSantis as well.

[00:16:12] But I think the distinction here is that Nikki Haley has, and her donors, and her supporters, the people who voted for her. These people are clearly against Trump. This isn't just a we prefer her out of the two candidates. A lot of those people are saying, we're telling exit polls. And, their donors are saying so, and their political supporters are saying so.

[00:16:38] They wouldn't support Trump under any circumstances. And I think that, I personally think that what Haley's realized throughout the campaign is there is no future for her or someone of her political mindset, for example, a pro NATO, pro Ukraine person, right? In Trump's Republican Party. Whatever her political future is.

[00:17:02] Whatever that is, whether it's a third party, whether it's in a post Trump Republican Party, there's no, you're not going to gain anything by jumping behind him as others have done. Yeah, so I think it's worth something to happen to Trump. Worth something to happen unpredictable. I think it would be a broker convention, and it would be probably whoever he endorsed.

[00:17:25] Bob Gatty: Good point. Very good point. And what about his VP picks? Who's in play, do you think? 

[00:17:31] Paul Krishnamurty: Oh, this is a great market, isn't it? This is the most exciting one. Just bear with me a second. 

[00:17:37] Bob Gatty: Okay. Okay. The man has to check his numbers.

[00:17:41] Paul Krishnamurty: I do have to check my numbers because these change rapidly. Okay, so favorite at the moment is a joint favorite, Christy Noem and Tim Scott.

[00:17:50] Okay, that's about 27 percent chance. Then we've got Vivek Ramaswamy, we've got Elise Stefanik, Tulsi Gabbard. Ben Carson. They're the top lot. There's literally dozens and dozens of names on this list. 

[00:18:07] Bob Gatty: Okay, so let me ask you this. If you were going to bet on this, and you might, who knows? 

[00:18:12] Paul Krishnamurty: I have bet on this.

[00:18:13] Bob Gatty: You did? 

[00:18:15] Paul Krishnamurty: I have already bet on this, yes. 

[00:18:17] Bob Gatty: Okay, who'd you pick? 

[00:18:18] Paul Krishnamurty: Tulsi Gabbard. 

[00:18:21] Bob Gatty: Oh, really? Wow. 

[00:18:23] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, I think the two people, and Ben Carson. Really? They're the two people I like. I, I do not believe that Trump will pick anybody who is not fully lockstep behind his position on Russia, Ukraine, NATO. It's not, 2016 when he picked Mike Pence.

[00:18:50] He needed someone to shore up his base with the evangelicals. The mainstream now this new, the Republican party now is Trump in character in every aspect. 

[00:19:02] Bob Gatty: He doesn't need anybody like Pence to, to shore up his. His evangelical base now, because he's selling Bibles. You're selling Bibles, you've got to be, a godly person, right?

[00:19:16] Paul Krishnamurty: Absolutely, and I think what he's trying to do, what they're looking at, is they want a person of color. To use against the charge that he's racist. 

[00:19:31] Bob Gatty: Yeah, and so that's why I was surprised that you didn't pick Tim Scott. 

[00:19:38] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, but the problem with Tim Scott's definitely desperate for the job.

[00:19:42] Yeah. He's desperately on the list. But Tim Scott is fundamentally, or was fundamentally, part of that, GOP establishment. Yeah, he was pro ukraine during all the debates So I don't think trump would trust him trump wants someone there again Let's say trump he is in danger here of being forced off the ticket late, right by court cases They want somebody who's fully on message and fully on size and that could be ramaswamy he fits that bill, but I don't think Trump would pick someone like Ramoswamy because Ramoswamy has already proved he can't be trusted during the primaries that he was lobbying against him.

[00:20:28] Tulsi Gabbard is as loyal as it comes to what he's, she's done lock steps since the moment he entered politics, she has worked on his behalf. 

[00:20:38] Bob Gatty: Yeah, and he's got trouble with the women's vote now, indeed. Yeah this abortion stuff is coming back to bite him big time. Do you think that's going to be a deciding factor in the election?

[00:20:53] Paul Krishnamurty: It does make a difference. I'm not going to say it's the deciding factor, but I think, I'm quite cool on Biden's chances. I'm not I backed Biden heavily last time, but I'd be very concerned about the vote splitting. Yeah. The fact that they're running abortion referendums on the same day in some key states, I think Nevada is one and Arizona is another, is that right?

[00:21:17] I think so. That could flip those two his way. It is a big issue. It's a bad issue for Republicans, definitely. And of course, the point here is that Trump himself has flip flopped all over the place on this subject, hasn't he? He's on, there's video footage of him saying, I'm a very pro choice kind of guy.

[00:21:35] Bob Gatty: Oh, yeah. He has, he's flipped he flipped and now, but now he's, he's all there for the for the right wingers unless he changes again. Maybe with the results of some of these elections like this case that just occurred what was it in one of the southern states had to do with with Yes.

[00:22:00] Yesterday, just the other day yeah they elected the Democrat that was pro abortion. Alabama. Alabama. That's what I'm. Yeah. Out of my head. Yeah. What about the age issue Paul, do you feel like that's going to be a deciding factor in this election? And if so can it be turned against Trump just as it's been turned against Biden? He's only four years younger than. 

[00:22:32] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah I don't personally think that really works though for Biden. I think there's a lot of things, firstly, it does matter.

[00:22:40] My general analysis of politics. Also comes from talking to people who aren't very engaged, right? Like I'm super engaged. I talk to people all the time who are very engaged, involved. The, when, but we don't determine elections anywhere. The people who determine elections are the people who don't have a strong view either way and are going to pick up on the memes, on the trends on social media and all that.

[00:23:04] And Biden's image is terrible. They have done a brilliant job, Republicans. Good. Of, memeing him, of, making him look hopeless. And whereas Trump, yes, Trump is old, and yes, you could tear apart his statements, but part of Trump's success, I would say a key part of his success, Is that he pulls off looking dynamic to that disengaged person.

[00:23:38] He's successful. Okay, maybe he's not successful. Maybe, maybe it's all fake, but he's pulled that. He's brilliantly branded himself in a certain way. And there are little things like, for example, the Stormy Daniels case. Now I was listening to Sarah Longwell, who does Republican focus groups.

[00:23:55] I respect her hugely. And she's saying this is a net positive for Trump. It makes him look virile.

[00:24:03] Bob Gatty: Just like selling Bibles makes them look religious, right? Yeah. Yeah. 

[00:24:09] Paul Krishnamurty: So what I did, and that would be my negative for Biden. Going to the election is not the record, because I don't think, as far as I'm concerned, I'm talking for another country and looking at international figures and comparing it to Europe and what not, economically, America's doing great.

[00:24:27] Yeah, that's right. Yeah, he's got a really good record, and he's achieved more legislatively than any of the recent presidents. But all I hear constantly is this negativity, right? This negativity about his brand. And I worry that with all of these other small candidates, who are all designed, who are all pushing to stay, I think, connected.

[00:24:51] But pushing the same, trying to squeeze out a little faction of the Democrat vote, whether that's Kennedy or Stein or Cornel West. I think there's every chance they'll do it just like they did it in 2016. Whereas Trump's people and Republicans, they're 

[00:25:10] Bob Gatty: incredibly loyal. 

[00:25:12] Who are you going to put your money on when it comes down to the election?

[00:25:17] Paul Krishnamurty: At the moment, my money's on Biden because he was better value. Yeah, but it was good odds, and he's still, I think, the bet. I still think he's likeliest to win than Trump. I think that, for all I just said about the worry that the Biden vote will fragment, you've also got this problem that Nikki Haley demonstrated there.

[00:25:38] A significant part of the Republican base now has had enough of Trump. I am still a Biden back. I also, like I've thought all the way through this, a lot of the time you've got to think ahead. You've got to think ahead to the campaign. How things will be framed. Is Trump really, are Republicans really going to run an election campaign where they have rallies opening with the January 6th choir?

[00:26:06] And where Trump will be asked repeatedly, will you accept the results of the election? And he'll say no. Will you? Call off your supporters. He'll say no. Are you really going to run for that? That seems like a suicidal mission. 

[00:26:20] Bob Gatty: It 

[00:26:21] Paul Krishnamurty: does, but we're in crazy time. So it could happen. Yes. 

[00:26:25] Bob Gatty: All right. Besides the presidential race, which obviously is Taking all the headlines, but what do you think about the House of Representatives?

[00:26:37] Do you think the Democrats have a realistic shot at taking control of the House? They don't need that many seats. 

[00:26:44] Paul Krishnamurty: That's right. We've got them just slight favourites. 56%, 47%. Okay. For Democrats there, I am, I personally think Democrats will win, not least because I think two reasons, number one, from what I'm reading, the Republican's money is just being eaten up by Trump's cases.

[00:27:06] Yeah. It's not going to feed down to these key races. Yeah. Secondly, I think that as we saw in 2022, the Trump endorsed candidates are getting crazier and crazier. Yeah. And. They lose, because they're not Trump. Only Trump can be Trump. You can't imitate the guy. I think that the Democrats will win that, will win the House.

[00:27:27] The Senate though, is another story, because the Senate, the races are terrible for the Democrats this year. They're just terrible. 

[00:27:35] Bob Gatty: So you think that the we're going to end up with a split with the with the Democrats in the presidency and the house of representatives in the Republicans running the Senate, which means that whoever succeeds Mitch McConnell will be the majority leader, not the minority leader and have a ton of power.

[00:27:59] Paul Krishnamurty: Yes. Yeah. 

[00:28:03] Bob Gatty: Which is going to make it hard for for Biden if he continues as a president. 

[00:28:11] Paul Krishnamurty: Just to quote the odds there, we are 80 percent Republicans to win the Senate, to control the Senate. Oh, is that right? Only 28 percent Democrats. Wow. And when you look at the races, in honesty, if I'm honest, I think 80 percent is probably low.

[00:28:27] There are seats up for grabs here. West Virginia's going to go Republican, and that's just gone, right? I think they could well hold on in Ohio and in Montana. But they're going to lose West Virginia means they've got a game one somewhere. And the only one that looks winnable is Texas.

[00:28:42] And it doesn't really, Texas isn't, doesn't particularly winnable. It's a long shot. 

[00:28:47] Bob Gatty: Yeah. The Republicans could also take Maryland. Do you think that could 

[00:28:53] Paul Krishnamurty: happen? Really? 

[00:28:54] Bob Gatty: I know that he's, I do. What's his name? The guy that was the former governor. He's extremely, yeah, he's very popular.

[00:29:01] And I was reading the other day that that this, they think that he's got a good shot and I would be surprised. I'm from Maryland and I would be surprised if that happened. But you never know. I never thought the guy had, I can't even think of his name now, the former governor of Maryland.

[00:29:22] What's his name? Do you remember?

[00:29:24] Do you remember Paul? 

[00:29:26] Paul Krishnamurty: Oh, I 

[00:29:26] Bob Gatty: don't know. Yeah. Anyway, it doesn't matter. So let's let's talk a little bit about, about BetOnline. ag. I gather that people can bet on politics there, right? 

[00:29:38] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, we've got I would say now we've got by far and away the widest range of political markets. Just to expand, we were just talking about the Senate, for instance.

[00:29:47] I'm looking here, and this is something that people didn't used to do, bookmakers didn't used to do this. We've got every single race. We've either got odds on to, if the state is competitive, then we've got odds on to win the Senate race, and if not, we've got by what margin the favorite will win it by. So just to take an example of that what we've got here is say Wyoming.

[00:30:12] Wyoming, obviously, That's a Republican win, right? No one's going to seriously bet on the Democrats there. So we go over or under 38. 5 percent winning margin. Yeah and we offer that on every race. Now we've got just to run down the US odds, we've got Joe Biden approval rating at the end of them every month.

[00:30:31] We've got all sorts of specials about Biden, will he be impeached, will the House vote to impeach him, will last full term, we've got, will Mike Johnson still be Speaker of the House at the next election? Yeah. 

[00:30:45] Bob Gatty: Yeah, that's a good one. That's a good one. You got old Marjorie Taylor Greene going after you.

[00:30:50] His ass. 

[00:30:52] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, that's a really unpredictable one, isn't it? Yeah. Because they're furious. And, those are the guys who elected him, right? Yeah. And you've also got this petition over Ukraine spending, which Paul, in a few hours, we, at the moment, we've got that, the odds there, we've got our 68 percent yes that he will be speaker at the election and 38 percent that he won't.

[00:31:20] But really, could go either way that one. We've got Electoral College margin, we've got all of the Trump endowments, like I was saying, Vice President when you apply. We also, we do world politics as well. So we've got, for instance, which of 10 world leaders named will be the next to leave office.

[00:31:45] We've got when will Putin leave office we've got there you go. If you think like he's a 28 percent chance he'll last to 2030. But that's quite a long time, isn't it? 

[00:31:57] Bob Gatty: Why? Because of his age? Is it because of People's I 

[00:32:01] Paul Krishnamurty: don't know. Obviously, you'd have to do with any information coming out of Russia with huge.

[00:32:06] There's a lot of sort of credible reports that he's very ill. Oh, okay. And there has been footage of him in situations where he looked extremely ill. Huh. And there is also, there's also, there's going to be the chance that he's going to be poisoned or something or assassinated in some way, right? So I think it's always an open market.

[00:32:33] Okay. We've got big UK elections this year, which we will have an enormous range of markets because as you can imagine, I'm all over that. So do 

[00:32:41] Bob Gatty: you have odds on whether Putin will be poisoned to death or not? No, 

[00:32:46] Paul Krishnamurty: no, we don't have a specific. We don't bet. We draw the line on betting on death, right? 

[00:32:50] Bob Gatty: That's a good thing.

[00:32:52] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah, no, we got some said, but in the cup, but we are just when will Putin leave office. But obviously if you are talking about that in Russia, given how these things are in play on that. 

[00:33:06] Bob Gatty: I was doing I was looking at my audience statistics the other day and I have a lot of, Apparently, a lot of subscribers in Russia and Moscow.

[00:33:18] Paul Krishnamurty: I bet you do, yeah. Yeah. 

[00:33:20] Bob Gatty: I don't understand why that is, but I'm certainly not going after them, but 

[00:33:24] Paul Krishnamurty: They're not gonna I think it's fair to say That, especially over the last decade in the Trump era, nobody's watching American politics closer than Russia. 

[00:33:37] Bob Gatty: That's probably true.

[00:33:38] That's probably true. Okay it's been a lot of fun. You got anything else you want to tell us? What else, what other little things you got going on there? 

[00:33:48] Paul Krishnamurty: So I say another big thing we've got is the UK elections. That's a really big thing. That's coming up at any time now. It's going to be this year.

[00:33:56] Again, we'll have absolutely hundreds of markets on that. We'll be having individual races. And all of this American election stuff, there'll be more and more available. I haven't got any House districts up yet because I want to know the candidates. I want to have the candidates clarified.

[00:34:09] But certainly, let's say the closest 50, the 50 most competitive, we'll have odds on all of them. We offered them for the first time in 2022, very popular. I was really surprised just how popular 

[00:34:22] Bob Gatty: Now betonline. ag, is that your company? 

[00:34:28] Paul Krishnamurty: That's our site. I work for them. You work for 

[00:34:30] Bob Gatty: them. Okay. Yeah So How do they make their money?

[00:34:35] They get a pretty good a percentage of what's bet or how does that all work? 

[00:34:40] Paul Krishnamurty: Oh, it's just bookmaking. So the nature of bookmaking is that, see, I quoted a lot of those odds in percentages now. Okay. Every probability in human life has A percentage to it, whether we like it or not, it does. We could literally just have a bet now and say, the next cars drive past your house, what color will it be?

[00:35:03] Okay. Yeah. Now imagine let's say we were betting on a to the TOS of a coin, right? The real odds of 50 50 for book maker, you would quote 51, 51, 51, or 51 and a half, 51 and a half. Because then, theoretically, you offer a service, you offer everyone a bet, and you make the 2%, because you've gone slightly over.

[00:35:30] So that's our, in our situation that, we would take an equal amount of money on both sides if the odds are right, we'd make the percentage, of course, it doesn't work like that because the odds are never a really truly right people, if I say, What will the Republican margin in Wyoming be?

[00:35:48] Gonna be over under 38 and a half. And it really comes down to when right or wrong, and we'll win if I'm right and

[00:35:56] Or whether the gamblers are right. 

[00:35:57] Bob Gatty: Right. Got it. Okay. You make your money exclusively from being a gambler? 

[00:36:07] Paul Krishnamurty: Not now because I've worked a bit online and I've got Oh, okay. Yeah, no. I was in gambling when I was a child, right? Really? Yeah, I was like, I was about 14, 13, 14, and I worked out that you could bet on soccer.

[00:36:26] And it was like, really? Because I'm good at maths, and I'm really into my sport. And it was like, really? Like I can make profits betting on three football teams to win. So I just got completely absorbed by it. Really? Totally. Totally. Totally. I was semi professional for years. I went and worked in industry, like running shops for a bit.

[00:36:45] Then 2003, I turned professional and it was my main living for 17 years. Wow. In the middle of that, because I was, I can write and I was doing a lot about, I started doing journalism on the side, doing analysis of the stuff I was predicting. And then Now, I do all three. I do bet online. I make the odds there.

[00:37:11] I'm a consultant there. And I do some analysis for Betfair and such people. And I also gamble myself. But the gambling for myself is now, it's not my main income. It's a more, it's a, it's an extra. It's a pastime. 

[00:37:25] Bob Gatty: It's an extra pastime. Okay. That's very interesting.

[00:37:30] Paul, I do appreciate you coming with us, coming on with us on the Lean to the Left podcast. And I'm happy that that you feel like in the end Biden's going to win. I'm not so happy that you think that the Senate is going to go to the Republicans, but I think you're right. And and one thing's for sure, this is going to be a really interesting and historic time that we're living, that we're living in right now.

[00:38:00] running up to this election, especially with all these court cases involving Donald Trump and the fact that we have, for the first time, we have a former president of the United States who's going to be in criminal court as a defendant. And that's just an amazing thing.

[00:38:18] Paul Krishnamurty: Yeah. Thanks for having me on, Bob. It's a great pleasure. I really enjoyed it. All 

[00:38:21] Bob Gatty: right. Thank you very much.