Jack Kerfoot-Bye Bye Coal

Show Transcript

Renewables Replacing Coal in USA

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: The United States has significantly reduced its consumption of coal since the early two thousands. In 2005, coal was used to generate about 50% of the US electricity, but by 2021, only 19.8% of the nation's electricity was generated by coal. Renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world's top energy source by 2025, and there are three compelling reasons that the demand for coal as a fuel is declining dramatically around the world, according to our guest today, Jack Kerfoot, a scientist energy expert, and the author of Fueling America and Insider's Journey. Stay with us. 

[00:00:53] Jack, welcome to Lean To the Left. Thanks so much for being with us today. I really appreciate it.

[00:01:00] Jack Kerfoot: Bob, it's always a pleasure to be on your podcast. Yeah. I think this 

[00:01:03] Bob Gatty: is what number four, I think maybe.

[00:01:06] Jack Kerfoot: I think you're right. Yes. Yeah.

[00:01:09] Bob Gatty: You're my go-to guy on clean energy and climate change and all of that. Tell me this Jack, is coal the same? Is all coal the same? And how is coal being used in the United States today? 

[00:01:27] Jack Kerfoot: I think the, first question is absolutely a great question to start with cuz people think that black coal is all the same, but they're actually four types of coal and the types of coal are determined by the carbon content and the quantity of energy produced.

[00:01:45] Now, that should be important for people to understand because the quantity of energy produced. Impacts the amount of power, which means that how much it can generate as far as electricity in their household. Okay? High of the carbon content, the greater quantity of greenhouse gas emissions, though that are generated. Now, the most carbon rich or highest carbon content, coal is something called anthracite.

[00:02:11] It's basically for a lump of coal, right in front of you would be 86 to 97% pure carbon. Okay? And the capacity is, By far the greatest of any type of coal out there. Now it's used in metallurgy where you need extremely high temperatures to make the product, whether it's titanium or a high, very high grade quantity of steel . Anthracite sells for about $107 a ton, and that was in 2021. So the price has gone up significantly since then. Okay. It also demonstrates the fact that no fossil fuel is renewable because the only place anthracite is mined is actually in Pennsylvania. It's been mined out everywhere else in the US and has been rapidly mined out in most of the other places in the world.

[00:03:01] Bob Gatty: Wow. 

[00:03:02] Jack Kerfoot: The next level of coal or as far as energy capacity is what's called batillam. And it generates between 45 up to maybe 80% of the content is carbon. And in 2021, if 45% of the coal in the US was actually batillam. It's mined for electricity generation, but also making steel and iron. Okay. And most of the coal, the bituminous coal is actually mined in the northeast in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, and Indiana.

[00:03:38] And most of those mines, the vast majority of those mines are subsurface mines. 

[00:03:43] Bob Gatty: Subsurface. Did you say. 

[00:03:45] Jack Kerfoot: That's correct. Yes. The mine shaft to go down the pictures of the old coal miners coming out of the mines, out of the up the rail cars covered in black soot. That those are the type of coal mines we're talking about.

[00:03:58] So this type of coal in 2021 sold for over $61 per ton. Lower energy content, lower carbon content, so therefore it's less valuable. The next is what's called subthemnen, and its carbon content is even less, of course. It's about 35 to 44% of a lump of coal would be carbon. So 46% of the coal in the US that was mined in 2021 was subthemnen. That gets us over 90% of the coal in the US were these two types of coal. Now this subthemnen is mined in open pit mines primarily in places like Wyoming and Montana, and these are enormous mines. They are 20 to 25 square miles open pit mines that are mined with large machinery bulldozers and vehicles to mine it and to ship it out primarily for electricity. That's the primary source of use, of primary use of the sub-bituminous coal. Now it is plentiful, so because it's plentiful, the price is only $14 a ton. But the reality is, as far as the consumer thinking about your electric bill, because it's got lower carbon content, it takes far more of this coal to generate the same amount of electricity as a bituminous coal.

[00:05:28] So the cost for transportation and storage makes it more costly transporting store than bituminous. And the last type of coal, which is lignite, which is the lowest carbon content. About 25% of our lump of coal and maybe 30% is It's lignite. So it's about 8% of the coal in the US is generated from is used for power generation and it is primarily used for mined in places like North Dakota and Texas.

[00:06:02] It's really a localized market for coal to mitigate the cost for transport and shipping to the electric power plants. So those are basically the four types of power. And we've gotta realize when we talk about electricity, power generation, in 2021, about 30 to 32% of the greenhouse gases in the United States were from coal and for fossil fuels in 2021. So moving away from coal, we can dramatically cut our greenhouse gas emissions as we move to nuclear and non fossil fuels. 

[00:06:39] Bob Gatty: Okay, great. Thanks for that explanation. Now in, in, some of our previous shows, Jack you explained that the type of coal of fuel, like coal or wind have advantages and disadvantages.

[00:06:54] What are some of those pros and cons when it comes to coal? 

[00:06:59] Jack Kerfoot: The primary coal "pro" is the fact that you can store a large volume of coal up to three months of supply of fuel at one site. So the coal fire power plants are high density and they have, can store a large quantity of coal so they don't suffer from intermittency of power supply. Let's say like solar does when the sun goes down at night, you lose your power source at night unless you've got battery storage. Now, the cons of the, on the other hand, are significant. First of all, economics, the cost to generate electricity from coal is two to three times more expensive than onshore wind or solar.

[00:07:44] Climate change generates the most amount of greenhouse gas emissions, significantly more than natural gas. In fact, coal generates 40 to 45% more greenhouse gas emissions than natural gas does, which is one of the reasons utilities over the last 20 years, based on economics and also based on emissions, have been moving from coal to natural gas, but also obviously to renewables as well. And finally, and this hasn't gotten much press, which is surprising, groundwater pollution. When you burn coal, you create coal ash. And that coal ash contains things like arsenic, mercury and lead, which are all toxic . So the US Environmental Agency requires that coal ash is stored in a secure area to ensure it doesn't wash in get into the groundwater, but yet the EPA in 2019, documented 241 cases where coal ash contamination had occurred in the United States from either active or recently closed coal fired power plants. 

[00:08:59] Bob Gatty: I did do that into the groundwater. Is that what happened? 

[00:09:03] Jack Kerfoot: That's exactly right. Leaks into the groundwater, which impacts, particularly if you're growing crops, you now have contamination from lead and arsenic and mercury, or if you and those or grass.

[00:09:15] And that grass is then eaten by your cows or by your other animals in the area. So the, impact on that coal ash can be significant to our daily food that we consume on a regular basis that we think is safe. 

[00:09:31] Bob Gatty: Okay, Jack. What's the difference in cost to generate electricity from coal compared to renewable sources like wind and solar?

[00:09:45] Jack Kerfoot: There's a lot of discussion on what the costs are, but the what's recognized is the, most effective way to compare cost is to look at a levelized cost of energy, which we call L C O E, levelized Cost of energy and all. What that means is it measures the lifetime cost of a utility scale power plant , to build and to operate and compare that divided by the amount of energy produced, the amount of electricity generated to the consumer. So the latest information I have which is multiple sources, US government sources, and then a Lazard Beta's been doing a series of these over the last 15, 20 years.

[00:10:30] And these are for the us. The onshore cost for wind as of 2021, ranges for ranges from 2.60 cents to 5 cents per kilowatt hour. Now compare that to the average cost of residential electricity in the us. Right now it's around 15 cents per kilowatt hour, so that's significantly less than the average cost of residential power.

[00:10:55] Solar ranges from 2.8 to 4.10 cents. Now the reason you've got a range for those costs is. Wind consistency and, magnitude of that wind will vary from region to region. And also different states have a certain variable property taxes. So when you put a solar farm or a wind turbine on property, they have to pay property taxes for that.

[00:11:21] So based on that cost, that all factors into it as well. Okay. Now you compare that to coal and actually the cost for coal now would probably be higher, but let's use this same. Frame of reference 6.50 cents to 15.20 cents per kilowatt hour. So again, two to three times more expensive to generate the same amount of electricity if we're looking at the consumer.

[00:11:46] Bob Gatty: So that's, incredible. 

[00:11:49] Jack Kerfoot: That's another factor. The economics have been driving many of the utilities, especially in the great plain states, to actively develop wind and solar at a very, rapid pace. 

[00:12:00] Bob Gatty: Now have power sources that US electric utility used over the past 15 to 20 years. Have they changed much in during that period?

[00:12:13] Jack Kerfoot: We've gone over the, say, since 2005. A major transformation in our power grid, and we'll sometimes hear discussions on the news about a particular wind farm or a project people like or don't like. But the reality is the energy grid system across the US has changed dramatically. In 2005, talking about electricity generated in the US coal generated 50% of the electricity in 2005, right?

[00:12:46] Nuclear 19%. Petroleum gases, which includes natural gas and propane and butane, about 19% renewables including hydro. About 9% and oil 3%. So in places like Hawaii and certain places in the Northeast, they still use fuel oil or a fine petroleum to generate their power. So in 2005, 3% was actually from oil.

[00:13:15] Now in 2021, what we see is natural gas petroleum gases generate 39% coal generates 22%, renewables almost 20%. And then we've got a nuclear at about 19%. Oil is only less than 1%, so we've had a major shift up in renewables and a major shift up in natural gas and a major drop in coal, and also drop in oil as well.

[00:13:45] Bob Gatty: Jack, what's, I'm sorry. Go ahead. 

[00:13:47] Jack Kerfoot: Sure. Coal and nuclear have stayed about the same. 

[00:13:50] Bob Gatty: Okay. I just was wondering what's caused this dramatic change in the type of fuel use to generate 

[00:13:58] Jack Kerfoot: electricity? The way I would start answer that question is start back with a key event in history. When I was in university many years ago, in the mid seventies, We actually had oil embargoes on the US and there was a shortage of oil, so cars were lined up for blocks just to buy five gallons of gas.

[00:14:22] Yeah. And people were concerned about the prime rate today? At that point in time, the prime rate went from 10% to 20%. Yeah. So we really did have inflation at that time, for sure. So energy security has been a major factor since the mid seventies for the US and the legislator. The other factors that started to happen is the obvious compelling data, talking about global warming and the disappearance of the ice caps and major temperature increases and also increases in severe weather. And so the global warming generates, or produces climate change. So with all of this going on in 2005, the federal legislators were increasingly concerned about climate change for our nation and obviously the world, but also about energy security.

[00:15:19] In 2005, the price of oil was, at that time extremely high at $56 a barrel and was forecast to go higher, which of course it did. In 2008, it topped at about $106 a barrel. So as a result, they had a bipartisan bill that was called the Energy Policy Act of 2005. And what that did was provide tax incentives to encourage domestic energy production, including renewable energy, like wind and solar, nuclear power, clean coal, and oil and gas technology.

[00:15:57] Now, the tax incentives were designed to spur developments of new technology. And as a period of time, those tax incentives would consistently be reduced and eventually disappear. The idea was to generate that new technology and use the entrepreneurial capabilities of our country, develop new technology to generate higher capacity, and ultimately reduce the cost of power.

[00:16:23] So the legislation did not have any significant impact to rejuvenate nuclear power. The problem with nuclear power is a huge amount of capital investment. 15 to 25 billion for a power plant. And then the timeframe to get that power plant from design to actual final approval is anywhere from 18 to 25 years, which is one reason we really haven't had any new nuclear power plants come online in the last 20 years. There's two plants in Georgia that will be coming on, but that's really the only new plants that we have on the immediate pipeline for large power plants. And there was no significant impact from clean coal which I still refer to as an oxymoron.

[00:17:12] Bob Gatty: Yeah, some coal cleaner than other though.

[00:17:16] Jack Kerfoot: It is, yes, we could argue that some is cleaner than others. It's when, many years ago when I was working on a, as a geophysical technician, I was in West Virginia and I was renting a a, utility room or a room from a lady who had a very nice house, but it was in the backyard.

[00:17:37] And she said, now you're gonna have to let one of my renters, after he comes off shift from the coal mines, use your shower cuz I don't want him coming in the house. And the guy would come home from work and he was literally covered head to toe in very fine black coal dust. And that was just about the time that they were starting to recognize black lung in the causes of coal onto the human body.

[00:18:01] So the good news is we've actually seen the improvements in wind technology and solar. And also there was the oil and gas industry that resulted in hydrofracking, which did increase the amount of oil production and gas production in the us. Now, those tax incentives encouraged people like, The late T. Boone Pickens, who I had dinner with in 2006 to shift from oil and gas to wind, and when I had dinner with him, he was telling me about developing and building a massive wind farm in Texas and how this was going to.

[00:18:42] Revolutionized the power grid in the US and the advantages of it. So we had a very useful and productive dinner that night and that really started me on the path toward focusing more on renewable energy and its importance. 

[00:18:57] Bob Gatty: You have to tell us how it came about that you had dinner with this guy.

[00:19:04] Jack Kerfoot: I had just come back from Malaysia and I, we had some rather significant success there. And so I was a speaker at a conference or at a Houston group of dinner to talk about a major significance in the energy industry. And then he was there to talk about wind. And so they put us together as speakers.

[00:19:30] They put us together and I really enjoyed and enthralled by the stories, and we had a very good discussion and we avoided discussing football because he was an avid Oklahoma State football fan. And I, of course went to the University of Oklahoma, which a lot of states with schools like this, like an Oregon, and Oregon state.

[00:19:55] They have these rivalries that go back for decades, if not a century. Sure. So we avoided football and it was a wonderful evening and very excited for me. 

[00:20:05] Bob Gatty: Okay. All right. Okay. Did you finish with your, I interrupted you. Did you finish with your explanation about that last question? 

[00:20:16] Jack Kerfoot: Just to help people understand that what the impact of those tax incentives were for wind, what happened was, In 1999, the average capacity for a wind turbine was just a few hundred kilowatt hours, and in 2020, the average capacity for a wind turbine in the US was 2,750 kilowatt hours, and now you're getting out wind turbines in the offshore that are going to be 12,000 kilowatt hours and 25,000 kilowatt hours. We've seen the capital investment cost for wind turbines to go down, the operating cost to go down, and also using new technology like drones to improve operating efficiency. The other factor is, Before 2005, if you talked about power plants, natural gas, coal, you were really talking about the utilities investing in those power plants.

[00:21:14] So they would go to the state utility board and ask approval to increase taxpayer rates for the electricity so they could get the capital to fund the, project, the gas project or the coal project. In 2020, over 70%, almost 75% of the wind projects and solar projects were developed by independent power producers and they'll go to the utility and say, if you give me a power purchase agreement for 15 or 20 years at a certain price, I will bill this project to you and I'll lay the transmission lines to your grid and you'll just pay me for every kilowatt hour that my wind farm generates electricity or my solar project generates electricity. They get that signed, then they'll go to the bank and they'll ask for capital funding from that standpoint. Now that's important to the consumer because the consumer never has to subsidize the utilities' purchasing for the wind farm. So that again keeps the cost down.

[00:22:19] So from that standpoint, we've got more power producers, actually three times the amount of power producers today than we had before, and we're also driving down costs significantly. 

[00:22:31] Bob Gatty: Now I just was wondering, With this war in the Ukraine, has Russia's invasion of Ukraine and embargoes caused European countries to activate inactive coal fired power plants.

[00:22:50] And if so which countries are the dominant users of coal? And, what's being done about that? 

[00:23:00] Jack Kerfoot: When in February, 2022, when Russia invaded the Ukraine, that prompted a series of embargoes on Russian exports and also imports by the European Union, the United Kingdom, the us, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

[00:23:20] But what that really did was it, and then when they were going to phase out, slowly phase out their gas from Russia and oil from Russia, but then Russia trying to negotiate out, started shutting off the gas. So that basically created, turned the energy grid system in Europe on its head. 

[00:23:41] And they had to find alternatives because the reliability of that natural gas from Russia was no longer there and they didn't wanna continue to fund it. And we have to realize that fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas, is a cornerstone for the Russian economy. In 2020, Russia exported 74 billion in crude oil, 48 billion in refined petroleum, 20 billion in natural gas, and 15 billion in coal.

[00:24:15] And all, 40 to 50% of that was going to the eu European Union in Western Europe. So that caused a major change and unsettling across that as well. Now the way that Europe adjusted to this change and was a very dramatic change with winter coming on as well was they started to install liquified natural gas terminals.

[00:24:45] They had a few, but they started to increase those. And started importing countries like Germany, Greece, Italy, and United Kingdom. Were able to do that relatively quickly and were able to increase L n g liquified natural gas imports from not only the Middle East and Africa, but also the United States.

[00:25:05] Accelerating renewable energy project development. Solar is usually very quick, but the areas like Southern Europe were able to implement that very quickly. Wind usually takes a little longer primarily because the grid installation and bringing all these components together. But again, in GenMark and Germany, they started to do that as well.

[00:25:29] They also, countries like Germany, which had just taken a position of eliminating nuclear power, decided to hold off on that decision. Now, their position on nuclear power was diametrically opposite to France. France sees nuclear as zero carbon generation, which is true, and also sees a very stable power source.

[00:25:52] And so from their standpoint, they didn't want to be dependent on Russian natural gas or any, fossil fuel, because eventually it will be mined out or produced out. So they saw nuclear as their best alternative. Germany had been fazing that out saying We're going to increase our renewable energy, but that's taken them more time than they thought.

[00:26:14] But they've been helped by a very mild winter. A few have maintained existing coal plants and used them as what I call peaker plants or peaker sources. When there's a certain surge in demand, such as a cold spell comes in, they can then reactivate those coal plants. But when we talk about the use of coal in Europe, it's really insignificant to one country in the world, and that's the People's Republic of China. They consumed in 20 21, 2 0.9 billion metric tons of coal, which represents about 51% of the total global coal consumption. So in 2021, China was producing by their accounts 30% of the world's greenhouse gases. Independent satellite data would estimate that number as closer to 40%.

[00:27:09] So they generate more greenhouse gas emission than United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, Australia, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy combined, and throw in a few more countries as well. So the biggest source of greenhouse gas emission is the People's Republic of China. So if you want to have an impact on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, Don't buy products that are stamped made in the People's Republic of China.

[00:27:38] So the other factor that's concerning to me is their appetite for coal is increasing. They're maintaining these relatively low lignite power plants primarily to; they're, going through a major economic crisis and so to maintain jobs, they're putting people in these. Close sometimes and reopening these coal depleted coal mines just so they people can have jobs.

[00:28:05] I understand that narrative, but at the same time, we have to recognize that the impact as far as greenhouse gas emissions, it's getting worse and significantly worse at a much faster rate than people realize.

[00:28:19] Bob Gatty: Jack, if coal is declined, if the demand for coal is declining in all these countries around the world, where is renewable energy development booming? 

[00:28:31] Jack Kerfoot: The answer is renewable is booming in every region in the world. That's the good news. Okay? But the details or the reasons actually is dependent by a region. If we look at the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, there's a huge boom in solar development.

[00:28:52] Now, the primary drivers there are the fact that they want to have. All their domestic energy on renewable energy with solar, and based on the amount of sunlight that they get, they can easily achieve this from that standpoint. The economic driver is, their economy is tied to the export of oil and natural gas.

[00:29:12] So they want to preserve this as long as possible. In Africa, we are seeing countries like. Burkin Faso Rwanda w Uganda, which may have low percentages to have access to electricity, like 5%, 10%, 15%, developing solar mini grid systems across the rural areas and across these countries.

[00:29:37] Now that's important. It's not just for light. It's primarily to run water pumps for agriculture, which is essential in sub-Sahara Africa. And That may be subject to drought, which can basically cause devastating famine from the country. In Southeast Asia, you're seeing countries like Malaysia and Indonesia develop major solar projects. In Indonesia that the several islands in Indonesia that are north and east of Singapore, a major industrial city, clearly covering these islands that aren't really inhabited with solar panels and then laying cables to Singapore to sell them energy. Because Singapore is a very densely populated, highly industrialized island country, and so they really don't have the space or the environment to really. Install in their country, wind turbines or solar projects from that standpoint, that will make a significant difference. So as Indonesia and Malaysia build these solar projects, they're selling green energy to Singapore. In Europe, of course, we've got major booms in renewables. Accelerated by the Ukraine War so they can move away from coal and also become energy independent.

[00:30:59] And also prepare for next year's winter. That might be a little harsher than this year's winter. In South America, we've got countries like Paraguay and Uraguay that are relatively small populations, but have vast renewable energy resources, wind, but also hydro as well. And so they're actually selling power to larger countries like Brazil and Argentina.

[00:31:24] So in 2020, Paraguay actually generated for their country 1.7 billion in green energy sales to Argentina and to Brazil. And of course in the US we've got booming wind and solar in the Great Plains area. East coast of the US We've got wind farms being built right now from Massachusetts all the way down to North Carolina, and I expect we'll see the, those wind offshore wind farms continue along the east coast, including down to Georgia and Florida.

[00:31:55] And we're also seeing in the Gulf of Mexico states and utilities looking at offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico. And finally the West coast is starting to look about implementing offshore wind from that standpoint, because offshore wind is stronger than onshore wind, so it's a higher source of power.

[00:32:16] So right now the answer is it's booming everywhere, and I think it's very probable that zero carbon sources by 2030, including nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro, that we may be very close to 50% or more by 2030 in seven years. 

[00:32:39] Bob Gatty: That sounds to me like it's good news. 

[00:32:43] Jack Kerfoot: I think it is, yeah. We just need to keep pushing and support legislation to remove barriers for the development of projects.

[00:32:52] And also support renewable energy as we move forward. 

[00:32:57] Bob Gatty: Jack, the other day the Biden administration announced that it wants to impose strict restrictions on auto emissions, the most strict ever. In a bid to advance president Biden's climate agenda by forcing US car companies to rapidly accelerate the transition to electric vehicles.

[00:33:25] What's your take on that? 

[00:33:26] Jack Kerfoot: The emissions restrictions that you're talking about is actually a plan that was initially put forward, and the idea is this, the largest source of emissions in the US is actually from transportation. Yeah. And the largest component of transportation. It's not airplanes and it's not ships, and it's not it's trucks.

[00:33:48] It's the automobile. So increasing the gas mileage and reduced emissions is absolutely in my mind the right step to move forward as far as moving toward a path of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve our goal and our commitment of the 2000 or the Paris Climate Accord. So from that standpoint, that makes sense.

[00:34:12] Now I have an electric car. The only limitation that you're having right now in the electric cars, there's a lot of debate, but the CEO from General Motors came out two years ago and said by 2025, 2 years from now, the cost for an electric vehicle will be the same as a combustion engine vehicle, and the car will be able to drive at least 500 miles on a charge.

[00:34:42] And everything I'm reading says that we're on that path. The next big change will be when you can get a battery that you can get fully charged in five or 10 minutes. And when that happens, then the gas stations will start putting in those chargers and you'll drive your electric vehicle in, plug it in, and get a 50% or a hundred percent charge in a few minutes and go inside and spend your money on what the gas stations really want you to spend your money on, which is soft drinks and munchies and lottery tickets, and then come back in and drive out. So from your standpoint to the consumer, there would be no change in the cost for the vehicle, no change in the amount of time you spend in a refueling or recharging station. The only thing you would see is much cheaper gasoline costs, much cheaper operating costs. I right now get about 3.1 miles per kilowatt hour. So to put that in perspective for a dollar and 10 cents, I drive 31 miles. Okay, so you can double that and say, I can drive 60 miles for $2 and 20 cents. Now. I think it'd be hard pressed, whether you're in Texas, South Carolina, Oregon, to get gas that cheap, and as we start to see the natural gas or the oil start to become depleted, we're going to see those prices continue to go up.

[00:36:14] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Okay. Jack, I appreciate you taking the time to explain all this for us and for our listeners. It's a complicated topic and it's, but it's extremely important and we've talked about this a lot and it seems to me that, the world is really on the right path. Now, Jack, what prompted you?

[00:36:42] I've, I think you might have told me this in our first episode. But you used to be a an executive in the oil and gas industry. Did, you not? 

[00:36:53] Jack Kerfoot: Yes. That. That's right. I did. And I spent over 25 years overseas. And so what my roles with different companies, I was recruited by different companies to work for them to do startups and turnarounds.

[00:37:07] What that means is, We have a problem and we can't find anyone inside, so let's hire the new guy and if he can fix it, that's great. And if we can't, we can get rid of him without any worry. That's alright. That's, I like a challenge, but that provided me the opportunity to meet with people at leaders in different companies, whether it was Singapore or Malaysia, Indonesia.

[00:37:29] Yeah. In Europe, in the Netherlands. Australia and talk about different energy issues. And so I think when I went to university, most of the people that were studying geophysics and geology were also members of the Sierra Club because we were all concerned, not only ensuring energy security for people, but also to do it in a way for a clean environment.

[00:37:54] Okay. But my discussion with T. Boone was the tipping point if you want, where I started to focus more on that simply because it's a factor of energy security, which is one factor we can't I get most people to agree with. I haven't yet to tell 'em, to have anyone tell me Even the most stringent climate denier that they don't like to save money.

[00:38:18] And then we can talk about the climate. The question about the eroding or the disappearing icecaps is I think without. There's no real there's compelling evidence. And then we're also starting to see, and this is another one that concerns me the most is 1999, sorry, 1980 through 19 99, 20 year period.

[00:38:43] This is a UN study, and they looked at the amount of severe weather, hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes. Heat domes or extreme heat waves around the world. And then they compared it from 2000 to 2019 and there was an 80% increase. So that to me, we may debate about the stochastic modeling about climate change and where it's going from that standpoint and that stochastic model's, models can be.

[00:39:12] There is certainly uncertainty in that you have to build it into your predictions, but the data that you, from a look back standpoint about climate change, to my mind is compelling and irrefutable. Okay. I'm a data guy so give me the evidence and I'll be happy Data guy who's also went to law school, so Okay.

[00:39:31] Show me the evidence. I'll go there. 

[00:39:33] Bob Gatty: Alright. I have to assume that these jobs you had with these energy companies, must have been pretty well paying jobs. 

[00:39:45] Alright, so you had this cushy job that you were making a lot of money in the oil and gas industry, and then you quit .I mean it, was it a hard quit or did you fi find some other soft landing spot or what? 

[00:40:04] Jack Kerfoot: What happened? I just, I became a consultant is what I did, because effectively that's what I was, a consultant. All right. But again, when you say the cushy job, you have to realize my work week was 80 plus hours a week. Okay. 

[00:40:17] Bob Gatty: I have to say based on the amount of writing that you do now that you haven't really relaxed much.

[00:40:24] Jack Kerfoot: Let's, just say I enjoy what I do and my wife says Im a Type A personality. So that goes without saying yes. So I had some wonderful times, and I had some wonderful stories with different people. It was a wonderful time, and there are many challenges that you don't realize and you can take them as do it in a graceful way or in a teaching way. And one of the stories I like to tell is I had a young man that was working for me that came in with a request to go to a school on carbonate geology that was in The Bahamas. And he, what he would study of, carbonate geology is a valid study. And the, class actually was a wonderful class, but that wasn't what he was working on and wouldn't be working on it.

[00:41:18] He was working on something very different environment. So he hands this to me and I said See look out my, office window. Looked out into a parking lot in New Orleans and I said do you see that little blue car over there? He goes, yeah, that blue piece of junk. I couldn't figure who owns that piece of junk car.

[00:41:39] I said I'm the prone owner of that junk car, and I want you to know that I treat my, the company's money like I treat. My money and he goes, he just grabs it back. The request back tears about me, he said, you could have said no. And I said, that wouldn't have been a teaching moment. So that was a great opportunity and I had many other type of opportunities like that.

[00:42:02] Bob Gatty: Okay, Jack. It's always this fun talking to you and it's always, as always, it's very informative. So thanks a lot for being with us, my friend. I'm sure we'll catch up again. 

[00:42:14] Jack Kerfoot: I would look forward to it. Thank you, Bob.