Show Transcript

If Election’s Today, Harris Wins

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: Kamala Harris soundly defeated Donald Trump September 10 in what is expected to be their only debate until the November 5th election. Although Trump's claim that unnamed polls show that he won that debate, that's not reality as actual polls showed that less than a quarter of debate viewers thought Trump won.

[00:00:20] Now, a new poll by Reuters shows that Harris leads Trump 47 to 42 percent among registered voters, up from the four point lead that she had in late August, when a national poll by Kaplan Strategies also had her up by four points. While Trump is one of the best known politicians on the planet, Vice President Harris is significantly less defined in the eyes of voters.

[00:00:45] She's pitched herself as a prosecutor and a realist who can be trusted to use common sense, while Republicans say she's as liberal as it gets. Trump says she's even a communist and a Marxist and all that. Anyway, the election may rest on who ultimately does the best job of defining Kamala Harris. We'll take a deep dive into all of that with Doug Kaplan, president of Kaplan Strategies.

[00:01:13] Doug Kaplan: How are you? Thank you for having me. 

[00:01:14] Bob Gatty: Yeah, it's a pleasure, man. What did you think of the performances by Trump and Harris in the debate? 

[00:01:22] Doug Kaplan: I've watched many debates and I watched, all the debates before I was going to say Kennedy Nixon, and I thought it was on par with that debate, I think Harris, in style and debate poise overwhelmingly won I think debated Trump psychologically on crowd sizes, on, some different things and I just think it was a tough night for Trump.

[00:01:46] The thing is how much will it affect the polling? And I think it'll affect the polling a few points. Okay. But more importantly, Kamala Harris had a goal. She had to sell herself to the American people. 

[00:01:59] Bob Gatty: Yeah. 

[00:02:00] Doug Kaplan: And I think she probably did that. 

[00:02:02] Bob Gatty: Yeah. I had a doctor's appointment the other day . I was surprised at her response.

[00:02:08] She's a fairly young doctor, probably in her late 30s. And I was shocked. I asked her what she thought. of the debate. And, saying she didn't want to talk politics and all that.

[00:02:21] I finally coaxed her into answering my question. And she said that she thought that Harris sounded like she was just really well prepared. And that She'd never heard her speak so well, but she said that in a critical way, and that surprised me, because why would you not want someone who is running for President of the United States to be well prepared?

[00:02:49] What if she's meeting with Putin? Don't you want her prepared for that, 

[00:02:55] Doug Kaplan: I think if you look at Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan back in history, they both won the election based on debates. So did Kennedy. And it's such a different country right now. Trump's got a floor about 45, 46, or 47 points.

[00:03:13] It just depends where he lands on whether or not he wins the presidency or not.

[00:03:17] Bob Gatty: Do you feel like this debate performance Her good debate performance, his poor debate performance will have a lasting effect on this election. 

[00:03:28] Doug Kaplan: Yeah, I've thought about it and I've thought about what other events other than, surprises could turn the election. And since there's no more debates, this is the narrative.

[00:03:38] This is what people will remember. 

[00:03:40] Joe Biden dropped out because of a debate. Harris is raising an extraordinarily huge amount of money. She's now she's got Trump campaigning in North Carolina. So it's a tough map, but the Republicans, they're all over the place and they're being outspent.

[00:03:57] So I think if the election were today, Harris would win. But we still have two months to go, which is, a lifetime in politics. 

[00:04:04] Bob Gatty: Absolutely. 

[00:04:05] Doug Kaplan: A little less than two months. Yeah. 

[00:04:07] Bob Gatty: Yeah. How do you think that her candidacy has changed the election picture? Trump's whining that he has to run against her now.

[00:04:14] They spent all this money to run against Biden, and now the Democrats ought to Be repaying him back for that. 

[00:04:21] Doug Kaplan: Yeah, he's been listening. He spent a fortune having to deal with DeSantis and Nikki Haley and then, getting ready for Biden. So now, it's a completely different candidacy that he wasn't prepared for.

[00:04:32] And, she didn't have to she had an advantage of not having to deal with a primary. So she really came out unscathed. So she's got a lot of advantages, I think, going into the election. 

[00:04:42] Bob Gatty: Oh, is the Harris campaign's effort to contrast her with Trump working, they're portraying her as joyful, upbeat, active, forward looking, hip and Trump comes off as being dark and negative with his messaging, and he's old, and it's showing they're portraying him as losing his faculties he's Sounds like he might be with some of the bizarre things

[00:05:11] he's talking about. What's your take on that? 

[00:05:14] Doug Kaplan: Oh right now? Harris is winning. This is a change election and it's a it's really Every day that it's about Donald Trump every day. She wins So Donald Trump has to make it about her and he really hasn't been able to do that in the last two months That she's been in the race 

[00:05:34] Bob Gatty: Yeah, he's trying to categorize Harris as a member of the liberal elite.

[00:05:40] Do you think that'll be effective, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania? 

[00:05:47] Doug Kaplan: It's not working so far. 

[00:05:48] Bob Gatty: Yeah, okay. Yeah, it doesn't seem to be, yeah the Republicans have made inflation a cornerstone of their campaign, blaming Biden and by extension Harris for high inflation, but things are improving gas prices are down interest rates are about to come down the stock market's showing strong gains, do you think their tactic will continue to work to blame the economy on Biden and Harris, especially if the economy is improving by election? 

[00:06:25] Doug Kaplan: I'm not sure, interest rates are about to come down. Like you said, gas prices are coming down. I think Biden made a big mistake where he basically took and owned inflation and didn't blame any of it on Trump when saying, Hey, you're the one who added 5 trillion to the deficit.

[00:06:42] These things were going to happen if I was in office or if I was not, but he never, but Biden never did that. He basically took, he basically took the blame for all of it. I think it was, interest rates have gone up and all those things, didn't happen under Trump.

[00:06:57] So I think that people do care about inflation is to housing costs and groceries. I think, Are the big issues, but I think Harris has a plan. She's talking about building 3, 000, 000 new houses, and that's how you fix it. 

[00:07:10] And we'll see if people are listening and going for it right now.

[00:07:14] She has enthusiasm. She sold out 2 arenas yesterday in North Carolina, which is incredible and, she's got the energy and enthusiasm. You always want to be. You always want to have the momentum. 

[00:07:24] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Did you hear about Harris's use of some kind of traveling billboard around the arena in Tucson where Trump was speaking?

[00:07:35] No, I did 

[00:07:35] Doug Kaplan: not. 

[00:07:36] Bob Gatty: Yeah they put together a bunch of clips from the debate and they put it in, in a In an electronic billboard that was in locations all around the, circling the arena where Trump was speaking, and played it over and over again all day yesterday. Just thought it was a riot. 

[00:08:00] Doug Kaplan: He must have loved that.

[00:08:03] Bob Gatty: I know. I just finished doing a video about it. I think it's, I thought it was really funny. Anyway the other thing too is the border crisis immigration. Now, Trump says Harris wants an open border and to let criminals, rapists, and drug dealers into the country. While Harris blames Trump for killing a bipartisan immigration reform bill that would have helped ease the crisis.

[00:08:27] What are the implications of all of that in this election do you think? 

[00:08:32] Doug Kaplan: Immigration is a tricky issue. It was once the wall was a fringe issue, now plurality support it. But when we asked recent poll capital strategies, what was the most important issue immigration came in number four.

[00:08:45] So they seem to have gotten the numbers down and changing the ports of entries and make it a little bit harder. So it's a communist for refugees. So I think that as long as the numbers stay down, I think it will help Harris. 

[00:08:59] Bob Gatty: Huh. All right. So what were one, two, three, and four, what one, two, and three?

[00:09:04] Doug Kaplan: I would say off the top of my head, it was reproductive was it, was the economy, inflation, and reproductive rights. 

[00:09:11] Bob Gatty: Okay. So we haven't talked about reproductive rights. How is that going to land? She, she killed, I thought she killed Trump on that issue during the debate. 

[00:09:23] Doug Kaplan: Yeah. He was twisting in the wind on that issue.

[00:09:26] Bob Gatty: Yeah. 

[00:09:26] Doug Kaplan: And if women come out and say it's as important as we're told. If Harris is elected, that probably will be the reason. 

[00:09:33] Bob Gatty: Okay. So you think that is the turning point, that could be the turning point of the election? 

[00:09:41] Doug Kaplan: I thought Trump had a good 20 minutes. They both did okay the first 20 minutes.

[00:09:46] So she became nervous when they started talking about reproductive rights is when the debate changed, I thought, and and then it went downhill from there for him. Yeah, I think it's a very tough issue because he can't find a good position. 

[00:10:00] Bob Gatty: No, he can't. That suits his base. And then he's got Vance.

[00:10:03] Trump's saying, no, I don't want a, I don't want a national ban. But his VP running mate, Vance counters that and says, yeah, we do. What? 

[00:10:14] Doug Kaplan: Yeah, it's all over the place in that issue. So it's real tough for them. Yeah. If they lose, that's just going to be, 

[00:10:19] Bob Gatty: Was Vance a mistake?

[00:10:21] His picking him to be his running mate 

[00:10:24] Doug Kaplan: I don't know. I think maybe having a Rubio running around by would have been better. Yeah. But I think Vance I think there are a couple of reasons that he picked Vance. I think Vance Remember, Donald Trump, if he's elected, he's a lame duck. He only gets one term.

[00:10:38] I don't think he wanted something like a guy like Rubio running against him on day one. 

[00:10:42] So I think that's why he picked Vance. I don't think Vance, Vance is the heir apparent. 

[00:10:48] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Okay. Gotcha on that. Yeah. Yeah. Now, what about Walz, though? Was he a good choice for Harris? 

[00:10:56] Doug Kaplan: It was okay. I feel like she could have picked someone in Pennsylvania, Arizona, or North Carolina, which could have given her those states.

[00:11:04] Why she didn't. If she loses, I think it could be because of that. Not because he's a bad candidate, 

[00:11:10] Bob Gatty: but you 

[00:11:10] Doug Kaplan: actually had candidates in those states, a governor of North Carolina, a senator in Arizona, a governor in Pennsylvania, Shapiro. So I question that one. 

[00:11:22] Bob Gatty: Okay, I understand that. I've been impressed, though, with him.

[00:11:26] I didn't know much about him, really, at all, before this, but I've been really impressed with him. I think he's come off well. I think people like him, generally. Do you agree with that? Yeah. 

[00:11:42] Doug Kaplan: Yeah. And they'll have a debate October 1st. So that'll be interesting. 

[00:11:45] Bob Gatty: Yeah. For sure. Absolutely. So between Trump and Vance, they seem to be finding ways to alienate key voting groups like women, for example and blacks.

[00:12:00] What do they need to do to overcome that? 

[00:12:04] Doug Kaplan: They need to focus on the issues and not talk about conspiracy theories and all of that. I just don't know if they're able to do that. 

[00:12:13] Bob Gatty: If you were advising them, what would be your advice? 

[00:12:17] Doug Kaplan: I would go after Harris on the issues. 

[00:12:21] Bob Gatty: Huh. 

[00:12:21] Doug Kaplan: I wouldn't call her dad a Marxist professor, that would be one thing, for instance, in a debate, call her dad a Marxist professor. I would not go after her personally. I would go after her and her issues and her record as attorney general. And I would find every illegal alien that that. That was let out that murdered someone and I would bring out those people, but they're not doing that for some reason.

[00:12:43] So I think it's now it's just a personality contest. 

[00:12:48] Bob Gatty: Okay. So if you were advising Harris, what would be your advice to her? 

[00:12:52] Doug Kaplan: Oh, just keep doing what you're doing. 

[00:12:53] Bob Gatty: Yeah. 

[00:12:53] Doug Kaplan: Yeah. Okay. 

[00:12:57] Bob Gatty: All right. 

[00:12:58] Doug Kaplan: Yeah, so we'll do it. We'll do another poll next week. We'll send it over to you. 

[00:13:03] Bob Gatty: Okay, good. I'd be happy to see that.

[00:13:07] What do your polls show, Doug, about where younger voters are trending? 

[00:13:13] Doug Kaplan: The trending towards Harris, it just depends how many votes turn out. 

[00:13:16] Bob Gatty: Huh. 

[00:13:17] Doug Kaplan: Obama was able to turn them out, so we'll see if Harris can do that. 

[00:13:20] Bob Gatty: If you follow social media it looks to me like she's winning social media.

[00:13:27] Do you agree? 

[00:13:28] Doug Kaplan: I think Obama transformed in 2008, Trump transformed it in 2016, and so far on the newer technologies like TikTok and all that, she's transforming it, yes. 

[00:13:39] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Okay. I don't remember. 

[00:13:41] Doug Kaplan: Trump has a conflict. He's got his own social media company that's worth millions of dollars.

[00:13:45] So he, he's, staying off of other social media. 

[00:13:48] Bob Gatty: Yeah. 

[00:13:49] Doug Kaplan: So that's a whole nother conundrum for him. 

[00:13:51] Bob Gatty: Yeah, and, but his truths or whatever you call them on his truth social, yeah they're being picked up by his supporters, yeah, and thrown up on, on Twitter 

[00:14:06] Doug Kaplan: It's not the same, I don't think, but. 

[00:14:08] Bob Gatty: How about RFK Junior's endorsement of Trump? Did that make any difference? 

[00:14:13] Doug Kaplan: No, I don't think so. 

[00:14:15] Bob Gatty: Is he crazy, do you think? 

[00:14:17] Doug Kaplan: No. That's a fair question.

[00:14:18] No, I don't know. I don't know. 

[00:14:20] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Okay. What about Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala? 

[00:14:26] Doug Kaplan: I really think she's maybe the one person in America that can endorse and it would matter. Yeah. If she can get, just get some of these women to turn out. Yeah. That wouldn't normally turn out. 

[00:14:36] Bob Gatty: She's got millions of followers.

[00:14:38] Doug Kaplan: Millions of Swifties, yeah. It's so cold. So she could, someone could turn out people in those states to turn and get newly registered voters and all that. So I think it's a wonderful, I think it's a wonderful endorsement. And if she's active and it seemed that she will be participating, I think it's a big endorsement.

[00:14:56] Bob Gatty: Yeah. Okay. All right. So what's your prediction, Doug? I 

[00:14:59] Doug Kaplan: If the Harris, if election were, if the election were today was Harris all I don't know what's gonna happen from now to, but it's Harris. If it's today. 

[00:15:05] Bob Gatty: Oh, you're not a prognosticator. You can't No. Predict it. 

[00:15:10] Doug Kaplan: I, if it's today, it's Harris. If it's today, it's Harris.

[00:15:11] Yeah. It's Harris, but something could change. Is it, is 

[00:15:13] Bob Gatty: it by a large large margin right now, do you think? 

[00:15:17] Doug Kaplan: No. 

[00:15:17] Bob Gatty: What do you think your poll is going to show? You said you're going to be doing a new poll in the next few years. 

[00:15:21] Doug Kaplan: Remember, there's a three point handicap. For instance, Democrats need to win by more than three points in order to win the swing states.

[00:15:28] If they don't, then they lose because of the national vote, where, because it's packed in Illinois, he's at California, New York. 

[00:15:34] Bob Gatty: So 

[00:15:34] Doug Kaplan: Michigan and Arizona and Pennsylvania are very close. I would say one, two points. Harris will be up. 

[00:15:40] Bob Gatty: Oh, really? 

[00:15:41] Doug Kaplan: Yeah. Okay. In those swing states, five points naturally. Oh, okay. I think she'll be up five or six 

[00:15:46] Bob Gatty: naturally.

[00:15:46] Okay. One to three. Which would be enough to do the job, right? 

[00:15:50] Doug Kaplan: Okay. She needs to be up about four or five points. 

[00:15:52] Bob Gatty: Yeah. All right. Got anything else you want to tell us about? No. 

[00:15:55] Doug Kaplan: Just yeah. Visit our website, Kaplan Strategies, or my social media, it's Doug Kaplan or Kaplan Strategies.

[00:16:02] Thank you so much for having us. 

[00:16:03] Bob Gatty: Oh, wait a minute. Before you go, let's talk a little bit about what you guys do, because I know that you Oh, yeah. 

[00:16:09] Doug Kaplan: We help candidates get elected in America and Canada. We do polling and digital and all that sort of thing. 

[00:16:15] Bob Gatty: But you don't just work for Democrats.

[00:16:17] You work for both parties, right? 

[00:16:19] Doug Kaplan: Yeah. 

[00:16:20] Bob Gatty: Yeah. 

[00:16:20] Doug Kaplan: Money's green. 

[00:16:22] Bob Gatty: Okay, there you go. All right. All right. Listen, Doug, thank you. I really appreciate you coming on.