Artificial Intelligence is gaining tremendous momentum, a development that has caused some experts like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak to warn that AI development should at least be paused. We’re going to explore that today with Tom Riley, a retired NASA instrument engineer and prolific author who believes AI offers tremendous potential for the world.

In an open letter released in April, more than 1,000 tech experts called for AI-labs to “immediately pause for at least six months.” The signatories include Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Elon Musk, among a who’s who of brainiacs who worry that the world is “in an out-of-control race to develop and deploy ever more powerful digital minds that no one — not even their creators — can understand, predict or reliably control.”

The letter came from the Future of life Institute, a non-profit determined to steer us away from “extreme large-scale risks.” One researcher, Eliezer Yudkowsky, who has been warning about AI for two decades, says we should “shut it all down.”

Stephen Hawking, the English theoretical physicist and author who died in 2018, put it even more directly, saying: “The development of artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” That sounds pretty serious. Sounds like there is more to worry about that whether students are cheating on their term papers by using an AI-app to write those papers for them.

Our guest today, Tom Riley, who has worked on instruments for the Space Shuttle and NASA satellites, puts all this into perspective. Here are some questions we discussed with Tom:
  1. In a note to me, you said AI was like “dancing on a landslide.” Do these warnings that I just mentioned concern you? Should the rest of us regular people be concerned about the implications of AI?
  2. Does AI mean that people will be losing their jobs to AI?
  3. What about privacy violations…and deepfakes…like the fake pics of Donald Trump being arrested that received thousands of hits on social media?
  4. But what about the good it can do? Like addressing the climate crisis, for example? You wrote a great book, “A Climate of Revenge.”
  5. Tell us about your Climate Crisis Stories? There are two books, right? Plus, you have versions on YouTube, right?
  6. Is there a movie in the works? Or a Climate Crisis TV series?
  7. There still are a lot of climate change deniers out there. What do you think the response to this project would be?
  8. Can you give us a taste of the plot? Is the AI character a robot?
  9. There are a lot of Misconceptions about our climate crisis. For example, “Greenhouse.” Is that a good explanation?
  10. If the major problems are coming on slowly, is this then a real crisis?
  11. What other big problems are now clear, and where does AI come into play?
  12. How can people find out more about you and your work, including your books?


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Show Notes

You can reach out to Tom Riley at TomRiley@bigmoondig.com. He invites comments and promises to respond to each. 

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Show Transcript

How Can Artificial Intelligence Address the Climate Crisis?

[00:00:00]

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: Artificial intelligence is gaining tremendous momentum, a development that's caused some experts like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak to warn that AI development should at least be paused. We're going to explore that today with Tom Riley, a retired NASA instrument engineer and prolific author who believes AI offers tremendous potential for the world.

[00:00:23] Stay with us. 

[00:00:26] In an open letter, more than 1000 tech experts called for AI labs to immediately pause for at least six months. The signatories include Apple Co-founders, Steve Wozniak and Elon Musk. Among a who's who of Brainiacs, who worry that the world is in an out of control race to develop and deploy evermore powerful digital minds that no one, not even their creators can understand, predict, or reliably control.

[00:00:59] The letter came from The Future of Life Institute, a nonprofit determined to steer us away from extreme large scale risk. One researcher Eliza Joukowski, who has been warning about AI for two decades says we should shut it all down. Stephen Hawking, the English theoretical physicist and author who died in 2018, put it even more directly.

[00:01:27] Saying the development of artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race. Now that sounds pretty serious. It sounds like there's more to worry about than whether students are cheating on their term papers by using an AI app to write those papers for them. 

[00:01:46] Our guest today, Tom Riley, who's worked on instruments for the space shuttle and NASA satellites, is going to help put all that into perspective.

[00:01:56] Welcome to the podcast, Tom. 

[00:01:58] Tom Riley: Thank you. The key to the whole thing is a tipping point. Yeah. And what you need to understand is that society has lots of tipping points, and one of the last ones you can remember is the introduction of the computer phone, the smartphone. Which was introduced in 2009 by old Steve Jobs, who said he was changing the world. He did. Yep. All right. It, and it took a couple of years, but now you could not do business on this planet without a proper cell phone. Yeah. And the odd thing was that all the low income people now absolutely have to have a cell phone for their events. And interaction. So it changed the world and there is no going back. Yeah. 

[00:03:03] Bob Gatty: Now in a note to me Tom, you said that AI was like dancing on a landslide and I really like that, quote, do these warnings that you know that I just mentioned concern you? Should the rest of us be concerned about the implications of ai?

[00:03:20] Tom Riley: Yes, it's a big deal, Uhhuh, and we crossed that tipping point and there is no going back. You can stall it for six months. That's okay. Because the next big iteration isn't due out for a year. You can have a nice meeting in which we will develop the ethics for ais and we will pro require all future ais to be programmed with these ethics.

[00:03:50] And then 10 seconds after they got on a user could get on and unprogram the ethics. Yeah. Still we need to program the ethics. We can't have these guys run around unethical. Right now you can get good old chat, g p t dash four free test. And treat it like it was a member of your team. If you're a management person, then you're gonna have your people.

[00:04:24] You now have an ai that's your people, and if you treat it nicely, it will increase the productivity of your other people by at least 40%. And we're looking for a big up next year to make it 70%. So is it a big deal? It's a gonna change the world and it will change the world every bit as much as the smartphone did but faster.

[00:04:55] And it could be good, it could be bad. That's up to us. Yeah. All right. But right now, some people will learn how to use this thing well. It's a powerful tool, then they will keep their jobs. Some people will not and be in denial and they will not learn to use it and they're gonna be outta work. And that's gonna be a big disruption to society.

[00:05:25] Bob Gatty: When you say use it in what way? What do you mean? 

[00:05:30] Tom Riley: For example, it took me a little over a year to research and write this book. Okay, I'm now studying the AI version. It uses specific structures. I ordered books for the structures. Once I learn them, I have every reason to believe I could write a better version of this book in one month.

[00:06:00] Including all the editing, which I paid thousands of dollars for. Okay. And that's scary. If you are not afraid of this nonsense, you are not paying attention. Okay. It's gonna, and that would put a lot of people outta work. Yeah. People who do it poorly are gonna turn out really unimaginative nonsense.

[00:06:23] People who do it well are gonna add their creativity on top of the absolute great work the AI will do for them. And they will be 40, 70% ahead of anybody else. And not only does it. Write everything you ever have to wr write, written. It's, a language, their language large language devices.

[00:06:52] So they do language best. But it'll help you manage it will help you plan. The things it doesn't do. Like it's not a great mathematician, it's a language model. Of course, it's not a great mathematician. Oh, I gotta sign up and give it a tool to do math. That's not even difficult. So not only are these things great with words, they're also have a wide variety of tools that allow them to cover their weak bots.

[00:07:25] Bob Gatty: Can you say that again? The wide variety. I just have a comment.

[00:07:29] Tom Riley: Alright. For example, if it's a word thing, it's not gonna be very good at mathematics, is it? That's not reasonable. It'll do a little math because words are mathy. Oh, but I wanna do a lot of math. In fact, in my business, I use spreadsheets all over the place.

[00:07:49] Does it do spreadsheets? Eh, weak. However, I can purchase a key, a button to put in my spreadsheet that lets me connect to it. Now all of a sudden I'm having this great discussion with my team member and it has complete access to excel and can do all the math and draw the pictures that I need from my business.

[00:08:18] Bob Gatty: Tom when what you're telling me is that we're going to end up with a bunch of AI experts who are going to be out there helping people like me, for example who is not, I'm not all that technically of, a technical expert out there helping people like me use it.

[00:08:42] So that's a new job opportunity. Is that not true? 

[00:08:46] Tom Riley: It's a new job opportunity for those who learn to use the ais. Sure. You are out of a job for those who don't. And take example, where our school sit historically, these are called chatbots is the general term. They were used to cheat on writing essays and so forth.

[00:09:07] So now they're a big cheat thing in school. All of a sudden, as of March 15th, Your ability to do a job will be dependent on how well you can handle it. Those people who were cheating got the skills . Those people who were toeing the line don't. Okay. And that's the type of thing that a tipping point just beats you over the head with.

[00:09:33] So now the cheaters are the winners and the ethical peopleare two years behind. 

[00:09:41] Bob Gatty: Yeah. I have a friend who's a English college professor, and at first he was worrying that this chat, whatever it's called AI tool would play hell in his classroom with students using it to write and pretending it was their work.

[00:10:00] But then he said the other day that he thinks there's opportunity there. What's the opportunity? 

[00:10:07] Tom Riley: The opportunity is, alright, I'm trained as an engineer. I'm not a word person. Sure. But. As an engineer, I design things, so I have an imaginary way to, to image things and stories and so forth. But I have trouble getting it into words. Okay. Okay. Now and, I, my practice up to and including this book was to then pay a word person to edit the book and the cost was around a grand. Yeah. All right. And took several weeks. Sure. And I paid it willingly because I'm not a good word person.

[00:10:47] Sure. I couldn't do anything at all without the word spell checker and so forth. But even with that, I had to pay an extra grand and take several more weeks to get it to its publishable state. Sure. Now I think up the ideas, I explain the ideas in a short paragraph. 

[00:11:07] The first thing I do I ask for an outline and it outlines my story after I discuss it for a while and I check that, then I go through the elements of the outline and I say what I want in my imaginative idea in words, and then it writes the scene, not expands the paragraph, writes a scene at a professional level. Very good spelling, very good grammar.

[00:11:36] And if I say I think we need this story to be Phil Noir. Let's make it dark and things blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. All I have to do is tell it and it rewrites it. Phil Noir. 

[00:11:50] Bob Gatty: Wow. Is this an audio exchange that you're doing or what? 

[00:11:56] Tom Riley: It's a la a large language system. You are writing words, you have a little paragraph place on the screen. I like to write in word, then cut and paste. That leaves me a record that I control. Sure, Right now we're, just in testing mode, so it sees everything. Okay. And maybe I don't want that. Okay. But I write it out, check it, got it. Nice. The way I want it. Put it in the prompt. Yeah. It's called engineering prompts. Okay. And then I hit the go button.

[00:12:30] It's so fast. I don't even have time to get a cup of coffee. Holy cow, man. It's crazy fast. It does. Wow. I don't understand why it needs to be that fast. I can't get up and get a coffee. 

[00:12:44] Bob Gatty: Okay. 

[00:12:45] Tom Riley: Yes. And, if I don't like it, Which it never liked the first draft. Yeah. I say blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and this, that this, character's weak.

[00:12:55] And we have a strength of this character right here. I don't have to repeat everything. It remembers the whole conversation from when I started defined this conversation. Okay. And then it rewrites it with my suggestions. Okay? And if I'm good, the suggestions will be good. The quality will be good. Now you might say can't they tell it's written by an ai?

[00:13:22] Unless you tell the AI to write it like a human being. And there are prompts specifically for that. And if you tell it to write it like a human being, it will be undetectably human being. 

[00:13:38] Bob Gatty: Incredible. Now is this you're telling this thing, I sound so stupid. What You're telling this, you're doing this in an audio way.

[00:13:51] You're recording this or you're typing 

[00:13:53] Tom Riley: right now the main ones are words. So you're typing it? Yeah. You're typing it. If It's a large language device. Yeah. Okay. I got it. If you want, oh, I wanna talk to it. You have to go get, add the app. Oh, okay. For talk. Oh, okay. I wanna do heavy mathematics.

[00:14:14] Okay. Let's add a math. I, made a living make it doing in mathematics for 39 years. Okay. All I have to do is add Wolf from Alpha. And now all of a sudden it's a better mathematician than I ever was in my entire life. And that's scary 

[00:14:36] Bob Gatty: that, that's what I did. Cuz you know what, when I went to college I was asked, it was Point Park College in Pittsburgh, which at that time was a two year college.

[00:14:47] And I was asked by the admissions people, what did I wanna major in? And I said Anything but math and science. And they, said you got great grades in English and writing, and you ran a radio station, a radio program and, you did all this, a magazine and everything. So why don't you become a journalist?

[00:15:10] And I said, okay, sounds good. And so I became a journalist and that's how it happened. Cause it's what I hate math and I'm not real good at science. So there you go. Go ahead. So I shoulda have had I shoulda had this AI thing back then and I've 

[00:15:26] Tom Riley: been in good shape. That, that's what I'm saying. We have crossed a tipping point.

[00:15:32] Yeah. You could call it a Rubicon. Okay. There's no going back. There's no more going back on this one after two weeks than there would be about going back on cell phones after 10 years. 

[00:15:49] Bob Gatty: All right. Now there's been a lot of stuff about when these pictures of Trump being arrested that were fake, they were AI generated, but they received thousands of hits on social media.

[00:16:04] A lot of people thought they were real and so on. That's a problem, right? How it can be abused, 

[00:16:11] Tom Riley: like I say. They wanna stop the development for six months and write the ethics. Ah-huh. And the ethics would say you can't present that as real. You have to present it as a reenactment somehow.

[00:16:27] Okay. The problem is one, at present there are no ethics. Okay. And two, It's not clear that if you put the ethics in and teach it the ethics that somebody else for their special consideration could not nullify the ethics. Okay? And we don't know how to put in the ethics, we know how to put in ethics.

[00:16:51] We don't know how to prevent the ethics from being nullified. 

[00:16:55] Bob Gatty: You think this will be resolved in the future and. 

[00:16:59] Tom Riley: No, I think this is just riot time. We are dancing on a sliding sand collapse. And it learn to dance cause there ain't nothing else gonna happen. 

[00:17:15] Bob Gatty: Oh, okay.

[00:17:17] So there won't be any controls over whether people could use it to, 

[00:17:23] Tom Riley: there will be controls and it will be an arms race. The responsible people will be putting in the controls and teaching them into the unit, so it's very hard to get 'em out. And these cheats and the ripoff artists will be figuring out new ways to get 'em out.

[00:17:44] All right? It literally was about 15 minutes from the time they develop a new way to check for AI writing and they had the new command to, to mess it up. 

[00:17:59] Bob Gatty: Okay. Now we've talked about, we've talked a good bit about some of the problems that can occur. What about the good that it can do? 

[00:18:09] Tom Riley: The good that it can do is that people who have ethics and who have some talent can now function as if their talent and skills were increased by 70%, and that means that the productivity of the human race is going up. Exponentially. Yes, it's scary. Yes. It's highly, yes. It's gonna help a lot in many, areas. 

[00:18:42] Bob Gatty: Okay. Now, and you wrote this book really good book, A Climate of Revenge. You just showed it a minute ago on screen.

[00:18:50] For those folks who are listening to this on audio just check the blog post the picture of it. Of, of the book cover on the blog post. But at any rate so you wrote this, book, it's about the climate crisis. Talk to me a little bit about about how AI might be helpful with respect to climate change.

[00:19:18] Tom Riley: All right. One. How do you get AI to be helpful? You ask ai, how can you be helpful? And it gives you lists and lists of things it can do. It's that easy. You don't have to sit around and think up new ideas. You just ask the ai and then you go through its list and you say, eh, I want some more.

[00:19:39] Give me another 10. And it goes through another 10. You say number eight here, let's write that. Let's, expand on that. I think I need to write a paper on that so we expand that one out. There are also many, hard problems like the folding of molecules that are just very hard for humans to do.

[00:20:02] But if you want to, you can put an AI on it and fold up molecules, which means that the ability to make new drugs is speeded up by years. Then there 

[00:20:16] Bob Gatty: that's positive. The ability to make new drugs 

[00:20:19] Tom Riley: To speed up the drug process, the process. 

[00:20:24] Bob Gatty: Are you talking about the approval process or the process of actually producing the drugs?

[00:20:28] Tom Riley: The early development process is the most powerful. Okay. All right. Another thing is alright. The one I was writing on most of the books about our climate crisis or doom and gloom that do nobody any good. They are the end of civilization. That doesn't help anybody. However, if you went too far the other way and wrote about unicorns and such wouldn't be any good.

[00:21:02] You need to hit that middle point and you need to hit it in such a manner that it's a good story well, that you can do now and do in a month, not a year. Okay. 

[00:21:17] Bob Gatty: Talk to me a little bit about your climate crisis stories and what you're doing with that. You've got two books about that, right?

[00:21:25] Tom Riley: Yes. There are two books in this series. When I first started writing the book, Two years ago now. Yeah. It was pretty clear that we needed this middle of the road. This about believable characters in determined action to address real problems. All right? And it was also clear that we needed some interesting situations.

[00:21:49] So I made one of the characters in artificial intelligence. Not a robot, just an image on the screen that has smarts. Okay. And then you had this big interplay between the human character and the AI character. And in this level AI development, it was proposed that all ais will be associated with a human being who has responsibility for that ai, and I came up with that two years before the situation. I thought it would be a decade before the I, I got that development. It was two months after I published. Wow. So the question is this a possibility? Can we make it where the ais are associated with a responsible human being and thereby reduce the danger?

[00:22:52] It's a proposal. It's a story. It's couple of stories. Let's think about that. The alternative is they're running wild. I don't, that's scary.

[00:23:04] Bob Gatty: Now you've got some versions of this on YouTube, right? 

[00:23:09] Tom Riley: I have some discussions of various points. I see. And for this idea about the AI is not a robot. The AI is an image on the screen, but the AI has the smarts, the Human character doesn't necessarily have it, but the human character is responsible.

[00:23:29] Okay. That I have a YouTube discussing that point. 

[00:23:36] Bob Gatty: I got it. So people could go in there though if they wanna learn more. I'll add the links to those clips in the notes with this podcast. It struck me that there might be a movie or a TV series coming outta this. 

[00:23:51] Tom Riley: The book is written to be a TV series. Okay. And I've paid a number of television producers to review the book. Okay. But it always came out mediocre. Okay. One, they're afraid that whether they could get funding for a climate crisis book. A story. But the other thing is I'm just not that great a writer or wasn't. Now I got a writing buddy.

[00:24:19] Yeah. Who writes better than me and writes a lot faster. Now I can rewrite that book in a month. Okay. The ais like a lot of structure. All right. So all I have to do is get some structure. What do they like? They like one called Save the Cat. And they like another one called Snowflake series.

[00:24:45] I got my choice. Do I want to save the cat or do I wanna snowflake it? The AI will take those as the structure and then guide you through the whole damn plot. Which will make it a lot better. The Save the Cat was developed by reviewing every major successful motion picture ever made and defining what are the plot, elements, which they call beets.

[00:25:14] So if you ever hear the plot deter described as beets, uhhuh, that's Save the Cat. The name comes from a poster of the cat hanging by a rope and your story is to save that cat. Yeah. Okay. So buy the book, learn the structure. Says we start with the characters. All right, so here are the things the character has to have flaws.

[00:25:42] The character has to have needs. The character has to have wants, right? You just discuss these things with the AI until you come up with flaws, wants and needs that you like, okay, and then you move to the next character and you get five or six characters gone. Now I got, some story building.

[00:26:03] Let's. Build a let's outline a plot. Okay. All right. Oh, wait a minute. This is a novel. We're gonna need more than just a plot. We're gonna need a B story. All right. Let's outline the b story. That is to say secondary plot with extra characters, blah, blah, blah. Lengthens it out to the tell. Okay.

[00:26:24] Length of a movie, the problem is isn't that kill your imagination? Structure, of course, restricts imagination, but I don't have to, I'm not writing it anymore. I'm literally the editor. Okay? I'm suggesting all these ideas and then well, what am, what if boy, I'd like to see these people in my mind, right? Then I can just ask it to write a description.

[00:26:53] That goes to Mid for Mid Journey and it will write out a description of the character for Mid Journey. I go over to Mid Journey and it draws me a picture of the character. I then can bring it back and now I'm working with images that I can believe in. All right. What's Mid Journey? Mid Journey is a graphics version, AI version.

[00:27:16] You go into Mid Journey and it helps you. Go from written description to a interesting picture. Aye. And it can be photographic quality if you want it, or it can be imaginative nonsense. Aye. The people, the nerds who develop this stuff love the sci-fi stuff. So most of 'em are, just exaggerated, sly nonsense.

[00:27:43] But if you say, this has set me this, is a. Set in the 1930s. Make them a photograph. Give it the look of the photograph from the 1930s. Give four views. Okay? Is it perfect? No, it has a bad habit of putting too many fingers. All right. It has a bad, okay. If you look at those ones you were talking about that here's that were supposed to be Trump.

[00:28:11] Being perk walked. If you go look at each of the individual faces, they're lousy. All right. They're poor distorted faces. Not, his. It'll do one face perfect, and then all the secondary faces look like crap. All right, so the, easiest way to check is to go check all the secondary fa, check, count the fingers.

[00:28:35] And look at the secondary faces. 

[00:28:36] Bob Gatty: Okay, that's a good tip. Now you wrote this book this climate book, what's the name of it? You're 

[00:28:44] Tom Riley: shown it a minute ago. A, Climate of Revenge. It's a supposed, to be a detective novel suitable for television, therefore it had to have a, detective novel type title.

[00:28:56] Bob Gatty: Oh, okay. Got it. Alright. And, basically, Talk to me a little bit about the approach of the book, the plot of the book, the thesis 

[00:29:07] Tom Riley: behind the book. The Plot's very straightforward. It's a novel. Yeah. If I was doing it, I would definitely do it. Film Noir, Uhhuh, but all it says is this young woman who in the first book was driven out of her seaside home by the rising tides.

[00:29:28] And has all kinds of family problems that led her to be a detective. And she is assisted by a AI who only appears as a image on the screen, and the two of them bicker incessantly, and they're approached by this shady character who is then killed, but basically his wife says, Has says there's money in his will for you to find who killed him.

[00:30:00] And the rest of the book is running around trying to find who killed the uhhuh. Okay, 

[00:30:05] Bob Gatty: I got it. That sounds really cool. Now, you wrote this 

[00:30:08] Tom Riley: when it was published in August. It was written about a year and a year, and a half before. 

[00:30:15] Bob Gatty: Okay. So this guy wrote this thing about this AI with this AI plot dealing with climate change essentially two years ago.

[00:30:25] I. And now all this AI stuff is just coming to the fore right now. 

[00:30:30] Tom Riley: I absolutely thought my description of AI was at least a decade in advance. Yeah, you said that earlier. Yeah. It was two months. Incredible. Incredible. And, now I gotta redo the whole damn thing. 

[00:30:48] Bob Gatty: Okay so you, have been climate, you obviously climate, the climate crisis must be a concern to you cuz you wrote that book about that.

[00:30:59] Tom Riley: When I Retired from nasa. I set up a local group for to help students, tutor students in stem science, technology, engineering, mathematics. Yeah. Okay. It became very quick soon very fast. It became clear that I had to ha tell them something about our climate crisis. Okay. Because the.

[00:31:25] We were looking at space travel and stuff like that, but it was very clear that it was a complete waste of time for them. Unless climate cri, our climate crisis is addressed. And so these two books or me trying to explain to high school level students what their lives will be, might be like, And that it is not gloom and doom and it is not a walk in the park.

[00:31:54] Bob Gatty: Okay. Okay. Do you consider 

[00:31:58] Tom Riley: the climate 

[00:32:00] Bob Gatty: change. Situation, a 

[00:32:04] Tom Riley: crisis. It is definitely a crisis, and it will be I'm, working with high school students. It will be the major defining problem of their lifetime. All right. They have to deal with it. What does that, not their fault, it is their problem 

[00:32:25] Bob Gatty: for life.

[00:32:27] What, is their reaction to this when you talk to 'em about that? 

[00:32:30] Tom Riley: The tricky bit is not scaring them so badly that they go into total denial. Or poo-pooing it, ah, you'll take a handle it, blah, blah, blah. You don't have to do anything and leave them wide open to being wiped out by the problems that are, that they don't see.

[00:32:52] It's a tricky balancing act. 

[00:32:56] Bob Gatty: Do you have any thoughts about This generation that you're teaching, and I don't know how to ask you this question. Positive, negative in terms of, what to expect from this gen generation going forward. 

[00:33:11] Tom Riley: All right. There are a series of things we can know about the climate crisis.

[00:33:17] Yeah. And. Most of them are just hard work. The we are going to have crisis after crisis in the weather. Fine. The population of the earth will peak with before 2100. 9 billion or so then fall to a level that the damaged earth can sustain. Probably about a third. So we're down around 3 billion.

[00:33:50] That's a very, different world in that one item alone. So we got bad weather falling population. These are things that human beings have not dealt with in 64,000 years. 

[00:34:07] Bob Gatty: Now this following population, how soon is 

[00:34:09] Tom Riley: that gonna happen? The peak should be between 2060 and 2100. It'll be very flat going over the top, so it's very and noisy.

[00:34:22] So it'll be hard to say it happened on this year. But the key thing to watch is how many children do young women have? And if that average drops below 2.1, then the population is falling. If it's above 2.1, the population is growing. Okay? The driving force is simply urbanization. Urban women do not have as many children as rural women.

[00:34:55] That has been true since before the time of the Romans. Yeah. And if you look at how fast urbanization has come on, that's the driver. 

[00:35:07] Bob Gatty: Tom, you and I are both in our senior years. We're both retired. We're not gonna be around to see a lot of US impact that we're talking about. But are you optimistic for the generations to follow?

[00:35:22] Tom Riley: I am optimistic that there will be a society of human beings on earth. I am optimistic that the population will drop to the sustainable level and at half the earth will be converted back to wilderness and rewild it. So that, cause that's how much territory it takes to stabilize the, climate. All right.

[00:35:47] These are things we can do. And in fact, we are on autopilot. There's absolutely, if you try to mess with them, it's going to be worse than not, than just rolling with the punches. So yes, we are going to have a society. The society will have a lot of high tech. What exactly don't know? It's good that, I don't know how long is all this gonna ha take to happen?

[00:36:18] The population won't stabilize for about 500 years, nor will the climate. Oh, okay. So we're talking about peaking 2060 slowly, falling for. 50 years and then an exponential drop at about the same rate was that the exponential rise was from the Industrial Revolution to World War ii. Is that 

[00:36:46] Bob Gatty: okay?

[00:36:47] Alright. Okay, Tom, where can people find out more about you and your work and, where can they get your book? 

[00:36:55] Tom Riley: The book is available on Amazon and a wide variety of other Oh, bookstores, electronic bookstores. Sure. The I in the back of the book cost me some money to have it included.

[00:37:12] There's a lengthy discussion of what the society and the environment will be like that was used to write the book. Okay. And that I would, and my email address is given there and I'd very much like to discuss that with anybody including ais. 

[00:37:33] Bob Gatty: Okay. You wanna put you want me to include your email address with 

[00:37:38] Tom Riley: this podcast?

[00:37:39] You can be, you can include the email event address, please, which is Tom Riley at. Big Moon dig.com, 

[00:37:50] Bob Gatty: big moon. D i g 

[00:37:52] Tom Riley: dig? Yes. All lowercase. Okay. That was the space thing we were doing when we, when I first retired. 

[00:38:00] Bob Gatty: All right. And Riley is r i l e y, correct. 

[00:38:03] Tom Riley: R i l e y. It means strong right arm. 

[00:38:07] Bob Gatty: Okay, my friend.

[00:38:09] All right. Got anything else you wanna talk about? 

[00:38:12] Tom Riley: Just that. The climate crisis is real. We can't we, needed a, societal tipping point to, to address the problems. We couldn't, we cannot do it without it. Now we got one. It's not exactly what we thought would happen. We've got to use that tipping point to address the climate crisis.

[00:38:36] 

Bob Gatty:

 All right. All right, Tom, thank you very much. It's been a pleasure talking to you. I think this topic is extremely important and timely, and I hope you guys check out his book. And so with that, we're gonna close it up. Thank you, my friend. 

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