Jack Kerfoot-Climate Change-Northeast-Which States are Paper Tigers?

Show Transcript

Climate Change: Progress in the Northeast

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: Which states are making real and timely progress at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and what are the factors that are contributing to their success, which states are really just paper tigers all talk and little action. That's what we'll explore in a new series of episodes with scientist and energy expert Jack Kerfoot that begins today. So stay with us. 

[00:00:27] Jack Kerfoot is a scientist, energy expert and author of the book Fueling America, an Insider's Journey and articles for The Hill, one of the largest independent political news sites in the United States. He's been interviewed on over a hundred radio and TV stations from New York City to Los Angeles on the frequently discussed, but poorly understood topic of energy.

[00:00:56] Kerfoot began his career in the energy industry in 1976 when America was paralyzed by an oil embargo. He spent over 35 years traveling the world, working with scientists, bureaucrats, ministers, tycoons, sheiks and heads of state on a diverse range of energy issues. He's the principal of JL Kerfoot Energy Services and blogs on his website , "Our Energy Conundrum", www.JackKerfoot.com. Hey Jack, welcome once again to the Lean to the Left Podcast. 

[00:01:31] Jack Kerfoot: Bob, as always, it's a pleasure to be with you today. 

[00:01:34] Bob Gatty: You know what, I'm really excited to begin this new series of episodes where we'll explore the progress real or not so real in the various regions of our country. I just think it was a great idea that you had that we pick this apart and, take a look at what's going on in, in the various regions. But before we really get into that, into analyzing what's taken place in four northeastern states, I think we ought to first discuss the basics. Are you good with that? 

[00:02:08] Jack Kerfoot: I think that's a great idea. Sometimes we throw around buzz words and people get lost in the nomenclature.

[00:02:14] Bob Gatty: I think that we're gonna talk about climate change, we need to talk about greenhouse gases and so tell me, what are the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions in America? 

[00:02:26] Jack Kerfoot: First, let's take a look at the components of greenhouse gases. Okay. They include carbon dioxide, co2, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and fluorocarbons.

[00:02:38] The primary component in greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide, co2, and carbon dioxide, the primary source of carbon dioxide is actually burning of fossil fuels, burning of oil, natural Gas and coal. Coal for fuel, for heating, for electrical power grid oil, of course, different gasoline and diesel for our cars and trucks, and also natural gas for heating in the house.

[00:03:07] For cooking and also for our power grid as well. The key thing to realize about greenhouse gases is they're effectively an insulator. They allow the sunlight to come through the earth atmosphere, but at the same time limit the amount of heat that will escape. And as a result, we've seen a steady and relentless increase in temperatures in our atmosphere and also in the oceans around the world.

[00:03:36] Bob Gatty: All right. So greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming, which in turn is linked to climate change. So what's the evidence and impact of global warming and climate change?

[00:03:48] Jack Kerfoot: Even to the greatest, most extreme climate skeptic, I think that everyone recognizes that We've seen over the last hundred plus years, a steady and relentless erosion or evaporation of the ice caps and of the glaciers around the world on all the continents.

[00:04:07] Additionally, what we've seen the marine biologists have been measuring for well over 60, 70 years, a steady increase in the marine temperatures. That in many ways is what concerns me the most because as the temperatures, water temperatures increase, it impacts the marine ecosystem, which is effectively impacts our food supply.

[00:04:30] If the temperatures increase too high, then certain plants for plankton or krill may die, and which means the whole food source for the rest of the fish and marine species also starts to be impacted as well. 

[00:04:44] Now, the evidence for climate change, in addition to seeing the icecaps melt, but when we talk about climate change, what we need to focus on is the extreme weather events, hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, heat waves. Wildfires as you're having in the northeast right now. And so what the United Nations has been doing is collecting data for 60, 70 years on these extreme weather events. And so what they noticed, or what they've documented, is if we look at a 20 year period of time from, let's say, 1981 to 2000 and then compare that to the next 20 year period of time of 2001 to 2020, they've seen over an 80% increase in severe weather. Additionally, it's not just ticking a box and saying more tornadoes. Of course, 80% is a very significant number. It's all the, also the severity of it. Now we saw examples of that in the United States in 2021 in Texas in February, where the temperatures in the state of Texas typically is in the neighborhood of, in February, sixties, maybe an occasionally high fifties, sixties, seventies degree temperature. But they actually had the temperatures dropped down to 10 degrees Fahrenheit, well below freezing. And what that caused is a complete almost the entire grid to collapse. They had to have rolling blackouts from eastern part of Texas through western part of Texas to be able to maintain that power. But this cold front just wasn't of the state of Texas. It included northern Mexico and also eastern Louisiana. These are large, low pressure centers that the whole temperature system dropped down and it one of the other outcomes outside of the power outages, there were well over 200 deaths.

[00:06:42] At the same year in June of that year, 2021, in Pacific Northwest in British Columbia, Western Alberta, Washington State, Idaho, and Oregon, we had what was called a massive heat wave. In June in these areas, your temperatures are typically in the sixties, occasionally seventies degrees. In June of that year, our temperatures went well over a hundred degrees, and in Portland we hit 120, which is a record high for the entire history of the state.

[00:07:14] Additionally, we had well over 500 fatalities from heat exhaustion and heat wave that we had up there that devastated Canada and the United States.

[00:07:25] Bob Gatty: So what are the primary sources, jack of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States? 

[00:07:32] Jack Kerfoot: What the United States Environmental Protection Agency in the United States Energy department do is they try and break it into five sectors. The first sector that has the most amount of greenhouse gas emissions is transportation.

[00:07:47] Trucks, planes, cars, trains, even boats. From that standpoint, that generates in the US about 28% of our greenhouse gas emissions. Number two is electricity generation, so that includes, Your power plants that are fueled by natural gas and also coal that generates 25% of our greenhouse gas emissions.

[00:08:11] Next is industry and major manufacturing. So what we're talking about is production and generation of steel and iron and also petrochemicals. And from that, You make obviously computers and cars and cell phones and pharmaceuticals. That generates about 23%. Next is commercial and residential. This is for the heating for homes and also businesses.

[00:08:38] That's about 13%, and last is agriculture, 10%. That's from fertilizer and also farm equipment that may use propane or gasoline or diesel to run their equipment, and also small quantities from certain types of livestock. So what President Biden has done is say, we want to target to try and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

[00:09:03] Let's focus on the areas that have the greatest source of emissions, which is transportation, electricity generation, and industry and manufacturing. 

[00:09:13] Bob Gatty: Okay, so can you explain how the electricity generation sector has changed over the past 15 or 20 years? 

[00:09:22] Jack Kerfoot: Actually I think over the last 15, 20 years, the electricity generation sector has probably gone through the greatest change since probably we started when we moved from wood to coal. In 2005, fossil fuels generated 72% of the nation's electricity and 28% was from renewables, which, or zero carbon, which includes nuclear, which is the primary source, hydropower and a very small amount of wind and solar. There was very little wind and solar in 2005.

[00:10:01] Fast forward to 2021, that amount of fossil fuels have dropped from 72 to 61% and renewables have moved up to 39% and most of that has been through the development of wind and solar. 

[00:10:17] Bob Gatty: Okay. 

[00:10:17] Jack Kerfoot: What's important to realize is another factor is the utilities have been making these major changes, not only just moving to wind and solar, but they have moved from coal powered power plants to natural gas power plants. And the reason is coal generates 40 to 45, 44% more greenhouse gas emissions than natural gas. They also did it because natural gas is cheaper than coal when everything was factored in with transportation and the mining costs. So as a result, if we go back and look at the electricity generation, we've actually seen greenhouse gas emissions drop from 2.4 billion metric tons in 2005 to 1.5 billion metric tons in 2022, so almost a billion metric tons. To put that in comparison, that is the most significant area in greenhouse gas reductions in our nation. In 2005 for all the sectors, we generate just over 6 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent. Now, fast forward to 2022, that number is less than five and the path we're going, I expect to see that we'll drop another billion metric tons per year in greenhouse gas emissions just from the power sector.

[00:11:41] Bob Gatty: That sounds like good news then, right?

[00:11:43] Jack Kerfoot: It is good news if we can get everyone on board, I think we can achieve that and perhaps do better. 

[00:11:49] Bob Gatty: Let's take a look and, see what some of these states are doing then. We're concentrating on this episode on the Northeast, and I want to say here to our listeners and viewers that over the next few months Jack and I will be talking about what's going on in other regions of the country. And so watch for those episodes, there'll be one every month probably for the next three or four months. Jack, which states are making real and timely progress at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and what are the factors that are contributing to their success?

[00:12:31] Jack Kerfoot: I think again, we have to realize that when we make comparisons, it's important to try and compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges, and by that the climate across our entire nation varies dramatically. Yeah. Obviously, the great plain states from Minnesota down to Texas have an abundance of strong and consistent wind.

[00:12:52] We look to the Southwest and we see consistent, sunny and radiant heat. Sunny days, which means that we've got good radiant heat for solar. So when we're trying to compare, it's important to try and look at similar types of renewable energy resources potential, but also population density as well to understand that for a utility in a densely populated area, let's say it's most of the states in the northeast, right? It's a different type of challenge relative to bringing in additional power and maintaining that power and turning it from coal and natural gas to renewables. So for that reason, I thought I would take a look at four states in the Northeast, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and also Rhode Island.

[00:13:42] Bob Gatty: Go ahead. 

[00:13:43] Jack Kerfoot: I'll start off with Massachusetts cause it's also important to realize that all four of these states have a renewable portfolio standard. And when I use that term, what that means is the state has passed legislation that says, alright, utilities, you have to increase the amount of green of renewable energy.

[00:14:01] More importantly, reduce the amount of CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. In 1997, Massachusetts enacted their standard and that basically mandated utilities to generate 35% of their electricity sales from renewables by 2030 and add an additional 1% for each year thereafter. So what we should look at, if it is 2023, that in seven years they've gotta get their renewable power generation up to about 35%.

[00:14:34] However, in 2019, Massachusetts closed the state's nuclear power plant, and what they did to make meet that power gap component from the loss of the nuclear power plant was bring in more natural gas power plants. So in February of 2023, which is the most recent data I have from the US Environmental Energy Agency, Massachusetts used fossil fuels natural gas to generate 81% of their electricity and yet they have a goal of being re 35% renewable in less than seven years.

[00:15:15] That's going to be a challenge. Yeah. Massachusetts does have significant undeveloped renewables including offshore wind, solar, onshore wind and hydro. However, the state has complex and highly lengthy land permitting laws, which makes it very difficult for the power companies to come in and not only build the power plants, but then get the power lines to the grid and integrate it into the grid so they can turn it from coal and natural gas to renewable energy.

[00:15:49] Now having lived in a state like the state I live in, Oregon, we've got similar problems and that's been a major barrier to development of renewable energy in our state. So we've seen a steady increase as our state population has in increased. The utilities have shifted to more and more natural gas to meet those demands.

[00:16:10] So right now, if we see that we are in June, 2023, in my mind it's highly unlikely Massachusetts will be able to generate 35% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2030 as mandated by their legislation. So they passed a law, but the question is what did they do to follow up on that law to make sure that it was implemented?

[00:16:35] Bob Gatty: So they're paper tiger. 

[00:16:36] Jack Kerfoot: They are a paper tiger. Indeed. Yes. So let's look at the next state on our list, which is New Jersey. All right. In 1991, New Jersey enacted their renewable portfolio standard, which said state utilities generate 50% of their electricity sales from renewables by 2030. But then in 2021, One of the major steps that they did is they started work on a New Jersey wind port.

[00:17:03] Now, when you build an offshore, when you're building an offshore wind farm, the first thing you have to do is you have to bring the wind turbines together and assemble them offshore, onshore, and then put them on barges and take them off. And for that, they need a wind port. And that's what New Jersey implemented in 2021. And that should be finished by summer of next year, 2024. 

[00:17:26] Bob Gatty: You call that a wind port. 

[00:17:28] Jack Kerfoot: A wind port, that's where it's going to. And it will also allow the operating companies, whether the utilities or the power companies to be in the operations center for continued maintenance and maintaining those wind turbines throughout a period of time.

[00:17:43] So they also In 2023, this is February, 2023, New Jersey Governor Murphy announced programs to achieve a hundred percent zero carbon energy by 2035, and also mandating all new cars sold will be electric by 2035. Now, when he did this, he recognized that when you bring in more electric vehicles that will increase the demand on your utility load or on your power grid.

[00:18:14] So he's already done the studies beforehand to make sure before they implement a program, they know what it's going to take to achieve that program. Now, February of 2023 in New Jersey, only 37.5% of their power was from fossil fuels. Wow. So that compares to, to what we talk about in, Massachusetts, 81%.

[00:18:41] 81%, yes. Incredible. So it's not a paper tiger. Now, more importantly, and this is why I get excited and say, thumbs up to Governor Murphy. Yeah. They have three offshore wind turbines. First of all, he's passed legislation to expedite the permitting process to bring the offshore wind power into the grid itself.

[00:19:02] Because the biggest challenge for offshore wind is usually getting a power cable through what we call the beach area, the transition zone area, and through the beach area and tied into the grid. So that knocked off three to four years in the entire cycle time of getting a offshore wind turbine commissioned off of New Jersey.

[00:19:23] So they will be bringing on two to three new major power wind farms in the next two to three years. And when they do, they will be able to shut down their natural gas power plants, so they'll be able to more than exceed the 37.5% power from natural gas right now. So Governor Murphy has now come out and said, I know we set the goal of 2035, but I think that we can achieve, and we're gonna push ahead to try and do this before 2030.

[00:19:56] So this is not just passing legislation, this is doing everything possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So in my mind, it's highly likely that New Jersey will be able to achieve their a hundred percent zero carbon energy before 2035 and, Governor Murphy is correct. It'll be before 2030, which will be, I think, just absolutely outstanding.

[00:20:19] That's not a paper tiger. That's real progress. 

[00:20:22] Bob Gatty: That's for sure. Ed, I think that Governor Murphy should be commended for his leadership on that. I do want to remind our listeners and viewers that former governor Jim Florio. The late former governor Jim Florio, was a huge advocate of offshore wind and until his death was advocating and supporting initiatives for offshore wind. 

[00:20:50] Jack Kerfoot: Thank you. Thank you, Bob. That's good. I didn't realize the governor had passed. My condolences cuz I know you know him very well. 

[00:20:57] Bob Gatty: Yeah, I knew him very well. Yeah. Okay. So let's talk about New York. 

[00:21:01] Jack Kerfoot: Alright. The state of New York. Now we've gotta realize that New Jersey had population is large, but not as large as New York.

[00:21:09] But in 2004, New York enacted their renewable energy standard, which was seven or eight years after New Jersey. In 2019, they increased their portfolio standard from 50% to 70% by 2030, and they further mandated that a hundred percent of all electricity generation have zero emission by 2040. Now in 2023, the utilities used 44% of their power from primarily natural gas, a small amount of coal, but primarily natural gas.

[00:21:45] So fossil fuels for New Jersey. Was 44%. Not as good as New Jersey, but certainly better than Massachusetts. Now, in May of 2023, this is what I, this is what I get excited. New Jersey Power Authority completed a major high power or high voltage transmission line. Now the reason that's important, wait a minute.

[00:22:08] You said New Jersey? You mean New York? I meant New York. Yes. Yeah. The power transmission line. The reason that's important is that power transmission line will allow onshore wind and onshore solar to be able to be tied into the grid that is in the central part and western part of the state of New York.

[00:22:26] So that's again, not only passing legislation, but removing barriers or increasing ways for that power grid to be transformed from fossil fuels to green. Thanks. They also have numerous, I could, I lost count of them. Offshore wind, onshore wind, solar projects. But by my calculations, these will all be coming on between the next two to eight years.

[00:22:50] And when these projects that are currently under construction, so they're fully funded and they're in the progress of being constructed, come online, they will be able to shut down the fossil fuel power plants that they have. So in my mind there's extremely likely, almost a certainty that New York will be able to generate a hundred percent of their power from zero carbon sources on or before 2040.

[00:23:15] And, but my calculations are right, probably before 2035. Excellent. So that's another success story, and especially for, I think New York is now the fourth largest city or the fourth largest state in population? California, Texas, Florida, and I think now New York. So again, the major population center, and we have a high population in densely populated areas that creates a real challenge for the utilities.

[00:23:45] So they've been over able to overcome those challenges and make significant impacts at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

[00:23:52] Bob Gatty: This is all really good news, I think. So let's go on to Rhode Island. 

[00:23:58] Jack Kerfoot: Now we, come to another case of Rhode Island. Now, in 2004, they passed their renewable energy standard, and their goal was to generate 38 ahd a half percent of their electricity from renewables by 2035.

[00:24:12] Now the good news is 2016 the first offshore wind farm in the nation in the US was off the coast of Rhode Island. It's the block island wind farm, and it's in state waters. It still is still operating. Obviously. They typically last 25 or 30 years before changes have to be made. But in 2020, the governor of rhode Island signed an executive order committing Rhode Island to generate a hundred percent of their renewable energy by year end 2030. That's less than seven years, six and a half years. But in February, 2023, utilities used fossil fuels to generate 89% of their electricity. That's even worse than Massachusetts.

[00:25:02] What, you look at is you, if you look at what's gone on in Rhode Island, that very little progress has been made at bringing in either community solar, which is relatively modest amounts, but still solar projects for the usually low income communities, onshore wind, offshore wind outside of Block Island since the initial first wind farm came on stream. They had one offshore wind project, and it's scheduled to be operational by 2025, although from what I read, it looks like it might slide a year. But even if you look at that, the amount of power that they're going to get in their power grid, will be less than 15% of their total electricity needs, which means that if you're at 89%, you come down to 75, 74% still fossil fuels. So in my mind, it's unlikely Rhode Island will be able to meet their renewable energy standard of 38.5% and virtually impossible to be zero carbon by 2030. So we see two paper tigers and two what I call A-Pluses as far as states to look at and try and emulate in what they did, right? 

[00:26:16] Bob Gatty: I wonder why some states are more aggressive than other states. Is it political leadership or what is it? 

[00:26:25] Jack Kerfoot: It's, good government and it's commitment. If you're committed, if you're simply passing legislation and checking a box and then putting it on a in a bin to say look, at what I've done right, then yes, that's what you end up with. But if you're committed like New Jersey and New York have been, and you make progress and remove the barriers, that's when you have success. I also like to say, Investigate before you legislate. I've seen a lot of states pass legislation, and unfortunately, a few of those states said we want 35, 40% renewable energy by 2025. Today they're at three or 4%, right? So what they've done is they've canceled the legislation.

[00:27:09] That's not commitment. That's just what I would say is bad government . Bad government says you don't stand by what you passed, and good or bad, you don't stand up for what you passed. 

[00:27:21] Bob Gatty: So we can learn from what's going on in these four states, right? 

[00:27:25] Jack Kerfoot: Absolutely. If you look at what New Jersey did relative to the high power New Jersey did relative to streamlining, permitting processes for bringing in new renewable energy and also the wind port, what New York did relative to investing in the power grid, so they could basically upgrade and bring in new power plants. People have to realize that the power grid is not like Lego. You can't pull out a wind, you can't pull out a coal plant and put in a wind turbine.

[00:27:57] Wind turbines require different types of resources, and you only put 'em in where the winds are strong and consistent. So it's understanding what that is. Now another state that to me is also a plus is outta New Mexico. Because New Mexico is an ex, has been an exporter of coal, oil and natural gas for over a hundred years.

[00:28:18] But what they're doing is shutting down coal, oil and natural gas, and investing in renewable energy, redoing their grid, and now laying transmission lines to sell electricity to states like California, which need the renewable energy and they're transforming their economy from fossil fuel to green energy.

[00:28:42] Bob Gatty: Okay, so when are we going to hone in on New Mexico and the states in that region?

[00:28:49] Jack Kerfoot: I've gotta roll up my sleeves and do some homework. I'd like to give you at least four comparisons and identify a paper tiger or two just to help people see what we can learn from the successes and also what we can learn from the others because both of them provide good insight on what we can do differently to really reduce greenhouse gas emission.

[00:29:11] Bob Gatty: Okay. So what are your final thoughts about all of this, Jack? 

[00:29:15] Jack Kerfoot: The clock is ticking on climate change. President Biden has identified in recent meeting to the world about what we have to do, and he is really targeting, trying to limit the increase in climate increase by 1.5 degrees by 2030.

[00:29:32] We can contribute and make a difference. And we're the leading economy in the world, but we can certainly make a difference relative to greenhouse gas emissions and help the world achieve that even though other nations, like the People's Republic of China and Russia have done little to nothing to reduce emissions between Europe, south America, even parts of Africa are really doing very significant meaningful work at adding electricity to their power grid for making it more accessible to the people of those countries, but making sure it's green energy and that in itself is very significant.

[00:30:12] Bob Gatty: Okay, Jack. Now we have our next episode in this series scheduled for August 28th. Do you have any idea what area of the country you'll want to look at for that episode? 

[00:30:30] Jack Kerfoot: I would say either the Southwest or the Southeast all, although there's another option as well in the Great Plains area to the north. There's one state that generates over 70% of their electricity just from wind. 

[00:30:48] Bob Gatty: Okay, wait. I said the next episode would be August 28th. The next episode will be July 27th. So we're, planning on doing these, on streaming these on July 27th. Okay. And August 28th. And then we'll be back after that with whatever areas of the country you want to discuss, analyze, and discuss at that time. But I thought we'd schedule those two so that our listeners can look forward to those episode. 

[00:31:24] Jack Kerfoot: It gives me a date to work toward and my homework to do. 

[00:31:27] Bob Gatty: Okay. All right, Jack, thanks so much for being with us again on the Lean to the Left podcast. I've lost count and I think maybe this is number five, 

[00:31:36] Jack Kerfoot: I think it is. And I see Yes it is. I think it's number five. That's right. 

[00:31:41] Bob Gatty: Okay. So by the time we're done, we're gonna be we're already old friends, but we're gonna get older. I hope that's, right. So anyway best of luck to you and and you guys I hope you enjoy this and find this, information that we're passing along to be interesting and helpful. All right, Jack. Thank you, buddy. 

[00:32:05] Jack Kerfoot: Thank you very much.