Today we’re talking politics, and with me are my political pals, Arthur Hill, from North Carolina, and Robert Thompson, from Georgia, plus a special guest, Michael McDonald, from Florida.

Arthur is communications chair of the Brunswick County, North Carolina, Democratic party. He and I both worked in PR and as freelance writers in Washington, DC. And, we both worked on Capitol Hill, back in the day.

Robert Thompson is based in Atlanta and founded Peach News Now and its opinion podcast, Got Damn Liberals. It’s an awesome podcast, and he takes no prisoners.

Michael McDonald is a nationally recognized expert on elections and national politics, and author of the new book, “From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 US Presidential Election.”

Michael is professor of political science at the University of Florida and a leading resource on American elections. His website, www.electproject.org, disseminates election statistics and is widely used as an authoritative source by media, scholars, and others. Michael was a guest on the Lean to the Left podcast a couple months ago, which why I conned him into joining us today.

We each take a look at specific races in our respective states of South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, and then we ask McDonald, who analyzes races nationwide, for his predictions about whether the Democrats can hold onto the Senate and the House.

Essentially, he predicts that they will, most likely, retain control of the Senate, but are in real danger of losing the House. But, he hastens to add, things could change significantly between now and the election.

Take a listen...

Show Notes

Soon the 2022 election will be upon us and early voting already has started in many states. A great deal is at stake as Republican and Democratic candidates for Congress and state and local offices have a very different vision about what our country should be. We’re going to talk about that today in this episode of the Dixie Dems.

But first, some housekeeping. Don’t forget to follow Lean to the Left at podcast.leantotheleft.net, and you can reach me at bob@leantotheleft.net. You can also follow us on social media…Facebook at The Lean to the Left Podcast. Twitter at LeantotheLeft1. YouTube at Lean to the Left, Instagram at BobGatty_leantotheleft, and TikTok at Lean to the Left.

If you would take a minute to give us a review, that would be great. There are lots of podcast links on our webpage, podcast.leantotheleft.net, where you’ll also find our upcoming interview schedule and links to all of our podcasts.

Meanwhile, special thanks to The Ramminger Group for sponsoring this episode and for providing the music track. The Ramminger Group provides content and marketing consulting services to responsible businesses and nonprofits. Let them help tell your story. Visit rammingergroup.com.

 

Show Transcript

[00:00:00] Bob Gatty: Hey guys, Welcome to the Lean to the Left Podcast. Today we're talking politics and with me are my political pals, Arthur Hill from North Carolina, and Robert Thompson from Georgia plus a special guest, Michael McDonald from Florida. Arthur is communications chair of the Brunswick County, North Carolina Democratic Party.

[00:00:21] He and I both worked in PR and as freelance writers in Washington DC and we both also worked on Capitol. At one point or another, Robert Thompson is based in Atlanta and he founded Peach News. Now in its opinion podcast, Got damn liberals, it's an awesome podcast. And let me tell you, he takes no prisoners.

[00:00:42] Michael McDonald is a nationally recognized expert on elections and national politics and author of the new book, from Pandemic to Insurrection, Voting in the 2020 US Presidential Election.", Michael's professor of political science at the University of Florida [00:01:00] and a leading resource on American elections.

[00:01:03] His website Elect Project.org disseminate election statistics and is widely used as an authoritative source by media, scholars and others. Michael was a guest on the Lean to the Left podcast a couple months ago, which is why I conned him into joining us today. So welcome guys, and welcome Michael. Thanks for joining us pal.

[00:01:24] Michael McDonald: Great to be with you guys. 

[00:01:25] Bob Gatty: It's getting interesting here in South Carolina where we have this little known state representative Krystle Matthews challenging US Senator Tim Scott. Scott is virtually ignoring Matthews, who seems to be pretty much self-destructing, and largely it's because of her big mouth.

[00:01:45] In fact, Scott's running a TV ad blasting the state's Democratic candidate for Governor Joe Cunningham, ignoring Matthews entirely tying Cunningham in with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. The ad [00:02:00] closes with a line, say no to Joe, both of them, which tells us something which is that he's certainly laying the groundwork for a presidential run in 2024. Last month, Matthews faced calls from some Democrats to fold her campaign following publication of leaked audio in which she appears to make disparaging remarks about the white voters she represents.

[00:02:27] She was recorded as saying, I keep . I keep them right here, like under my thumbs. Otherwise they get out of control, like kids. Matthews admitted that it was her voice on the recording, which was released by Project Veritus, a conservative activist group. She dismissed them as satirical, mega powered news outlet.

[00:02:53] This was the second Matthew's reveal by Project verus. The first was when she was recorded [00:03:00] speaking to an inmate about funding her campaign with Dope Boy Money, and having Democrats run as secret sleeper Republicans. Prediction: Matthews goes down big. Then of course there is the Cunningham Challenge to McMaster, the good old boy governor who has been in politics according to Cunningham longer than I've been alive.

[00:03:25] Cunningham says he'll do away with the state income tax, legalize recreational marijuana. As well as sports betting, making it possible for South Carolinians to bet on sports through mobile apps and brick and mortar locations throughout the state. It's part of his freedom package, which also includes supporting reproductive rights and a woman's right to decide whether to have an abortion without state interference.

[00:03:52] Now, Foghorn McMaster wants to ban abortions in nearly every instance. His ads claim [00:04:00] credit for keeping South Carolina open during the pandemic. Thus saving jobs. Nevermind that businesses were rescued by the federal government, not McMaster: prediction, McMaster wins, but more narrowly than in the past.

[00:04:15] Now, there are some interesting local races here for the state legislature and a Democratic challenge for US House District seven seat currently held by representative Tom Rice who voted to impeach Trump. And was soundly trounced by a right wing Trump backer in the primary. I expect that Republican Russell Fry to easily win that seat.

[00:04:39] Now, what's happening in your states, guys? How about you, Michael? What's going on with the craziness there with DeSantis, Rubio and company? 

[00:04:46] Michael McDonald: Lots of different things are going on. I, DeSantis has over a hundred million dollars in his war chest, so it seems most likely that he's going to win the election for governor.

[00:04:57] The Senate election is closer in the polls [00:05:00] and there was a very contentious debate just a couple days ago. It's possible that Demings may have a surprise against Rubio. I think it's, again it's closer. The polls, have just a slight Rubio lead and there's some things going on in the election that might help out the Democrats here if it really is going to be a very close election.

[00:05:21] One is the hurricane came through. Really hit hard, A Republican area of the state, southwest Florida. And I can see in the early data, early voting data returns from that area so far. There's certainly lagging behind the rest of the state. So it may be that there'll be depressed turnout.

[00:05:39] We saw that happen with Hurricane Michael a few years ago. And since Hurricane Michael came in and hit another red part of the state, but it's fairly sparsely populated. It's not like Fort Myers And and so we'll, we'll just have to watch and see. If there's a depressed turnout in that southwest part of the state.

[00:05:58] The other thing that's going on at least with [00:06:00] respect to the early vote is that Florida has or used to have, it still has, but it goes away after 2022, a law which says that if you request a mail ballot, that request is good through two federal general elections. And so anyone who requested a mail ballot in 2018 or 2020, they are getting a mail ballot now, and of course, Democrats were voting in mass by mail in 2020. The Democrats right now have a half million mail ballot request lead out there over the Republicans in Florida. And the challenge will be for the Democrats to convert those into votes if they can do that.

[00:06:37] And, there's good evidence to suggest that mail balloting increased turnout. So if they can do that, then who knows If it gets real close there might be enough juice there to get the Democrats over the hump in that Senate election. 

[00:06:50] Bob Gatty: Do you really think that Demings has a shot against Rubio?

[00:06:54] Michael McDonald: The polls have 'em close. I it's a head scratcher. And she looked pretty good in the debate. [00:07:00] She looked like she was, just taking Rubio out to the woodshed, in the debate. There was some really choice moments from that debate that are worth watching. 

[00:07:07] She was a, a law enforcement, she said they can't go after her on being weak on crime. And and if anything, like she's attacking Rubio back on these sorts of things. I don't know. I stranger things have happened. I, again, if I were betting on the election, which I don't bet on any of these things, but if I were, I'd probably put my money on Rubio, but I don't think that's a sure bet.

[00:07:27] Arthur Hill: Is she running for her house seat at the same time? 

[00:07:30] Michael McDonald: She's not. 

[00:07:32] Arthur Hill: Okay. So do you know anything about that race that will the Democrats be able to keep that seat? 

[00:07:37] Michael McDonald: Oh yeah. That seat's a very solid democratic seat. Republicans, when they were gerrymandering up the state, they made that seat a a sink for Republican votes.

[00:07:46] It's really Stephanie Murphy's seat, which is just to the north of it. And That is the one that could have been a close race for the Democrats. I haven't seen much in terms of polling or anything really in terms of polling out of that election, that race. But [00:08:00] Stephanie Murphy decided that she wasn't gonna run for reelection, and that's gonna make it hard for the Democrats to retain that control of that particular seat.

[00:08:07] Robert Thompson: Yeah, I was gonna thank Val Demings for actually showing a real badge on Twitter the other day, cause Herschel Walker likes to ride around with his fake Fisher Price badge and claim that he worked with law enforcement. Props out to Val for doing that. 

[00:08:22] Bob Gatty: No, I was on this app this memes app, and they have pictures that you can use for doing memes and that picture of Herschel Walker holding up the, holding up that badge has made it to the , has made it to their standard pictures that you can use, , which.

[00:08:44] Oh man, . 

[00:08:46] Robert Thompson: The problem with that though, is the Republicans are eating all that up and they love it. They're just basically a bunch of cowboys. And even though he was not permitted to have a prop, this is again what we're talking about, unfortunately, [00:09:00] instead of the real issues. 

[00:09:02] Michael McDonald: People are voting in Georgia we've gone, we've had ,as we're talking at this moment, we've had two days of in-person early voting under our belt, and both days are records for a midterm election in terms of the number of people who voted. Now there's a lot else going on here because Georgia Republicans also made it harder for people to vote a mail ballot, so it's pretty clear to me the mail ballot numbers are depressed at this point, from comparing back to say, 2018. Some of what's going on right now is people probably who wanted to vote a mail ballot are voting in person because it's difficult to get the mail ballot. But even then, if you lump together the mail ballots and the in person early votes together we're still well above the 2018 level.

[00:09:44] And there could be some residual reverberations that are happening because of the 2020 election and where people were voting early more often in that election. So maybe some of that's going on, but it just makes sense that people would be voting in that [00:10:00] election. It's the most expensive Senate election. Control for the Senate could be up for grabs. And you got an interesting character in Herschel Walker. And when you've got all of those things together, lots of money, lots of interest, a candidate who himself is controversial, that's gonna gin up turnout. And so it's, it, to me, it's not surprising to see these eye popping numbers of people who have voted so far.

[00:10:23] But what I think is if it can continue through to election day while Georgia doesn't have party registration, they do have race on the voter file, and we can see that so far the early voters are 35% African American. And in prior elections they were only 30% or lower. So they're reaching the metric threshold of what they need. The Warnocks campaign and maybe even Abrams, for that matter. If those numbers persisted all the way through to election day, I don't think that's gonna happen. I think that we're gonna see more white voters get into the mix as we get closer to election day. But right now [00:11:00] the, at least the Democrats are sitting pretty in Georgia.

[00:11:03] They gotta like what they're seeing. It's just gonna be, can they keep that enthusiasm going through to election. 

[00:11:11] Robert Thompson: And one question that I saw the other day in Florida this whole felon voting issue and these cops, I'll put in air quotes, going around in serving warrants, but they didn't really know what the warrants were that they were serving.

[00:11:24] So what's the latest that you're hearing about the felon voting in. 

[00:11:27] Michael McDonald: It's just really sad that people who, thought they were doing their civic duty, they wanted to get engaged back in public life after they had been released from prison and they thought they had done everything that they needed to do to have their rights restored.

[00:11:42] It turns out well, Florida doesn't make it easy. And they probably make an intentionally difficult. There's no way for someone who's been a felon to look up to see if they've really paid off all their fines, fees, and restitution. It's just, which is the legislature requires in [00:12:00] order for people to regain their rights.

[00:12:02] And without that ability for people to even look that up, election officials can't look it up. So when some, a felon submits a voter registration form, there's no way for the election officials to verify whether or not the felon is eligible. So the election officials went ahead and registered these people, and in case one of these election officials, by the way he is now the leader of this election police force that DeSantis has.

[00:12:27] So he was, in a way, entrapping people because he was registering them to vote and now he's coming back and leading the effort to arrest these people for, the thing allowing, of him enabling them to commit the crime. It's just a sad situation and it's not the first time we've seen this.

[00:12:43] Voting while black is a problem we see across the country and there's Crystal Mason in Texas. Who cast a provisional ballot. She wasn't sure if she was eligible or not, so she cast a provisional ballot and it turned out she wasn't, the ballot never counted, so it, she didn't [00:13:00]even vote.

[00:13:01] But she's been in prison five year term sentence in prison for casting that provisional ballot. It's just not right when people are trying to get back on their feet, getting back into society, and we make it really difficult and we wanna punish 'em. These were, these are not people intending to try to throw the election to Biden in Florida.

[00:13:21] These were just people who wanted to participate and get back into normal life. 

[00:13:25] Bob Gatty: They've already paid their debt. Why should they have to pay it? 

[00:13:28] Michael McDonald: They're gonna have to, they, they got arrested. They had to be taken in for, into jail and booked. So in some ways they're already paying a penalty yet again for a crime that, again, we should forgive this.

[00:13:38] And I, I'll just say one other thing about this cuz it, if you really care, if you, maybe maybe there are Republicans that listened to you, but if you were a Republican saying, no, they did something wrong, they committed a felony, they need to be punished for that. If you really believe that, guess what? You should have Donald Trump in prison because he committed a [00:14:00] Florida felony when he signed a voter registration form that listed the White House as his address.

[00:14:07] Now that's not a Florida residence and that's what he claimed to be his residence. And and he signed it saying, under penalty of perjury. Everything is true on this form. And it wasn't, He was not a Florida resident. According to him, he submitted another application where he said, Oh yeah, no, Mar-a-Lago is actually where I is, where my residence is.

[00:14:28] But he submitted that form. It was a felony. I'm not saying I don't know. I'm not saying throw Donald Trump in prison, at least for that. But if you're not gonna throw Donald Trump in prison for making a honest mistake and having intention of voting, I don't think you should be doing it to these other people either.

[00:14:45] Robert Thompson: That's a good he lives up in New Jersey during the summer anyway, 

[00:14:48] Michael McDonald: yeah. . He's not even supposed to be living at Mar-a-Lago. That's the o other whole thing about when he bought the place, he said he signed, there was a lawsuit and other things that said that he wouldn't call it at his [00:15:00] residence.

[00:15:00] So people down in Palm Beach will tell you that he's not even supposed to be living there? 

[00:15:04] Robert Thompson: We're hoping that we're gonna find him a jail cell in Georgia soon, 

[00:15:07] Bob Gatty: so doesn't pay attention to anything else illegal anyway. What's going on with you, Arthur? 

[00:15:13] Arthur Hill: We're excited up here in my little corner of North Carolina, Southeastern North Carolina.

[00:15:18] We found out this morning that Sherry Beasley, who is virtually in a deadlock with Ted Budd for the US Senate is gonna be making her second visit to Brunswick County. Now, the thing that's, the thing that's interesting about this is she's pledged to visit each of the 100 counties in North Carolina during the campaign.

[00:15:35] And she's already done that. And now she's going around for round two. And she's making her second visit to Brunswick County and we're gonna, we're gonna we're gonna have her, so she's got the Cape Fear River to her back. And she's gonna talk about the environmental record of Ted Budd who supports chemical companies in North Carolina that have poisoned the Cape Fear and and it's gonna be a great backdrop. And so we're excited about that. But she's running a very good [00:16:00]campaign across the state and and it is. Last week she was ahead in some of the polls and this week Bud is one or two points ahead in some other polls, but it's all within the margin of error.

[00:16:09] And so I think visiting Brunswick County where she had a great turnout the last time she was here, and we're gonna marshal up another nice turnout for while she's here next week. So we're excited about that. And that that's what's been keeping me busy. For the last few weeks.

[00:16:23] That, and some of the other local campaigns. Got a pretty good campaign going against David Rouser, who's the seventh Congressional District US Congressman. All you need to know about him is that He was a former legislative assistant for Jesse Helms. And he's running for his fifth term and we have a really good candidate Charles Graham running against him.

[00:16:41] And and he is from Robeson County which is north of here, and he's the only Democrat, the only elected Democrat in the county. So the folks up there like him and and we're hoping the same thing will be true of the other counties that make up the gerrymandered seventh district.

[00:16:55] And that's, those are the main headlines events in, in my life as far as North [00:17:00]Carolina's concerned, . 

[00:17:01] Bob Gatty: Okay. So Robert, tell me what else is happening in Georgia. 

[00:17:06] Robert Thompson: Everybody knew that Herschel Walker, was a spectacle at his debate that he actually called in Savannah, but there was a second debate he decided to skip.

[00:17:16] Now the strategy is, hit and miss across the US with these Republicans knowing that they're gonna be asked tough questions. So they just skip debates. It's an interesting strategy. I was gonna, Michael if you had any other examples of this, strategy of skipping a debate because you know the questions are gonna be too tough.

[00:17:35] But can show you his fake badge, right? ? 

[00:17:37] Bob Gatty: We have a situation here in South Carolina too cuz cause McMaster has been dodging Cunningham's request for a debate. So Cunningham went to some kind of a poultry farm the other day, or some kind of a livestock farm picked up a chicken and said that McMaster was chicken for not debating him.

[00:17:58] And so now mc chicken [00:18:00] is going all over, all over Twitter in South Carolina. , it's doing pretty well. 

[00:18:07] Arthur Hill: Is there some kinda national Republican strategy not to engage in debates? What this is happening not just in our states, but all over the country that they don't want a debate and it doesn't make any difference whether they're incumbents, They just don't want a debate.

[00:18:21] Is there anything going on there? Is there a national strategy to avoid it? 

[00:18:24] Michael McDonald: I. I'm gonna both size it just for a second. Also, there's Katie Hobbs out in Arizona who's refusing to debate as well. So it's, it, here's the thing. When do decide not to debate? It's when you you have a lead.

[00:18:37] You, you think that you're gonna win the election. Is, it usually is what people do. And I, I doubt that Herschel Walker's campaign believes that he's going to win. So there's probably something else that's going on there, and likely they just don't want to have their candidate make an embarrassment out of himself on the debate stage again.

[00:18:55] That's a different sort of strategy, but for the most part, yeah, if you're if you're in the lead.[00:19:00] You don't want to have make a mistake. You don't want something to go viral and make a meme out of it, like a Walker's badge, that wanna try to avoid that.

[00:19:10] And the easiest way to do that is just to not debate if you don't have to. 

[00:19:14] Robert Thompson: And the strategy failed for David Perdue. He was a two time senator here in in Georgia. He never held a town hall. He actually went on the record and said quote, Town halls are not my style. And he lost his seat to John Ossoff that is in for six years. So it, I feel like Georgia is a bit more picky with these candidates. We obviously, we were pivotal in this narrow margin that we have in the Senate with our two senators. So it'll be interesting to see. My other concern is about Stacy Abrams. Stacy Abrams, I'm gonna go on record and say she is more well known outside of Georgia than inside of Georgia.

[00:19:55] I have been, to California and other places, and people love Stacey Abrams and the [00:20:00] Republicans are trying to use that, that she is the, celebrity governor or what have you. Her debate performance was amazing. The other night. I listened to a couple of sound bites from that. She, called Kemp pretty much on everything that he was trying to claim.

[00:20:15] The one key thing here in Georgia is this Medicaid expansion. Kemp was trying to claim that there are more people than ever in Georgia on Medicaid. Yes, because of the pandemic. And that's all about to end. There are commercials running in Georgia right now that those are on Medicaid to make sure that you update your information because that's all about to get pulled out, from the rug up under you.

[00:20:35] Abrams was very key to say that we've also had, an Atlanta, the city of Metro Atlanta we actually had only two trauma hospitals. One of those is closed. And their emergency services ended last week. So we were down to one trauma hospital, because under this and Republican administration in Georgia.

[00:20:53] It, it literally has life and death consequences for these decisions that a Republicans are making. [00:21:00]

[00:21:01] Arthur Hill: We have a Medicaid issue in North Carolina too. The legislature here has refused to accept expanded Medicaid from the federal government. And although there seems to be a bit of a change of heart, some of the Republican leaders in the state legislature put up a bill authorizing expanded Medicaid coverage. And but they couldn't even get the support of their own caucus to get the bill through the legislature. That's become a big issue. Democrats versus Republicans in North Carolina. And I guess it's all, they hate Obamacare and they don't want, they don't wanna do anything to encourage or broaden Obamacare in the state of North Carolina, which is a shame.

[00:21:35] Bob Gatty: Same exact things happening in South Carolina too. It's the same thing. Michael, I wanted to ask you, I know you have to leave soon. Have you got a prediction as to what will happen with the house and. 

[00:21:48] Michael McDonald: We're ways away, , but again, if I were a betting person at this point, again, I'm not it would be, I think the Democrats are going to retain control of the Senate and they'll lose control of the house.

[00:21:59] [00:22:00] That's the most likely outcome. It's gonna be very narrow and events between now and election day could easily upset that balance. And you just never know what could happen. We could have any sorts of surprises that happen between now and November. But right now I think it's, that's the most likely outcome for the election.

[00:22:19] Bob Gatty: Okay. Anybody else have some thoughts about that? 

[00:22:24] Arthur Hill: Yeah, I think. I think Michael's right. 

[00:22:26] Robert Thompson: Vote. . 

[00:22:26] Michael McDonald: Yeah. And that's the big wild card at this point, cuz it, these, all this could change. Look, if we have a record turnout for midterm, which is at least for a modern election, 2018 was the highest turnout since 2014.

[00:22:38] It was an exceptionally high turnout election. I think we're gonna beat that election. And a lot of what people are predicating, the, their assumptions about the election are on polls that some of 'em, they have wide variation on their likely voter models.

[00:22:53] Some of 'em think we're gonna have a low turnout election and some think we're gonna have a high turnout. And those low turnout likely voter models they tend to favor the [00:23:00]Republicans more than the high turnout ones. So if we really do get something really exceptional and the pollsters are just all wrong on turnout that could really change things.

[00:23:07] Two, three weeks from now, we're gonna have a better picture as to where the election stands. And it could be that, everybody's assumptions are just simply wrong about this election that we're underestimating the sort of anger and angst that's out there in the electorate. We should could see a very high turnout election.

[00:23:25] Arthur Hill: Yeah, North Carolina starts early voting tomorrow. So it's gonna be interesting to see what happens in terms of people going to vote or mail-in ballots starting tomorrow is gonna be very interesting. 

[00:23:35] Michael McDonald: Yeah, I agree. I follow this stuff very closely. I'll plug myself, ElectProject.org.

[00:23:42] And then my Twitter's at ELECT project and I've got a book about the 2020 election, but a lot of that is carrying over to today. So it's "from pandemic to insurrection, voting in the 2020 US presidential election." Get that book it's cheap on Kindle and, electronic version.

[00:23:57] I really encourage people to do it and, you, [00:24:00] if you follow along, you're gonna follow along with a lot of other people because I get like a million hits on my website. It's crazy. So it's gonna be a very crazy ride for the next month. 

[00:24:08] Bob Gatty: Thank you very much, Michael.

[00:24:10] I know you have to leave and, but I do appreciate you joining us on our little Dixie Dem show that we do every month. And Good 

[00:24:19] Michael McDonald: luck to you. Great to be with you guys and y'all take care. I'm gonna be heading off, I got doing yet another interview, so it just never ends for me.

[00:24:28] Good luck. 

[00:24:29] Arthur Hill: Nice to see. 

[00:24:30] Bob Gatty: There you go. So we had our our influx from Florida and the national perspective. 

[00:24:39] Arthur Hill: Did you guys see that Rubio debate? 

[00:24:42] Bob Gatty: I didn't see it. No, but I read a good bit about it from the Washington Post. 

[00:24:46] Arthur Hill: Rubio was franetic. He needs to take his pills.

[00:24:48] I thought I 

[00:24:50] did. Did you see it, Robert? Did you see any of it? He was just hyper. He was hyper and he was, they asked him, will he accept the results of the election even if he loses? [00:25:00] Yeah. And he had about a five minute answer and it took him until the end of five minutes with arms waving and everything else to say yes, he would accept the results.

[00:25:09] Bob Gatty: Yeah, it didn't go on and on about how Florida has a great election law and he trusts the Florida election law. 

[00:25:16] Arthur Hill: Yeah. He did. They spent a lot of time talking about that, and it was just extra. And then through the whole thing, they had the split screen thing with with Val and the, and she was just smirking.

[00:25:25] She was just smirking through the whole thing. She's got a great smirk, . 

[00:25:28] Robert Thompson: It may, maybe Rubio has been spending too much time at Mar-a-Lago. Cause there tend to be some alleged recreational drugs being doled out at Mar-a-Lago.

[00:25:36] Arthur Hill: is that what it is? Why am I not surprised? Yeah, 

[00:25:39] Robert Thompson: I did not catch that debate. I've been on the road for a couple of days, but yeah it doesn't surprise me to be, and you've seen all of these retirements from the Republican party that, that they're abandoning the sinking ship with a bunch of wacco people on board.

[00:25:54] Arthur Hill: Yeah. I remember in another day, decades ago when I was working on the hill, there was a group [00:26:00] of Republicans called the Wednesday Group, and you remember them. Do you remember them? Oh. They were called that because they'd get together that, and it was the moderate wing of the Republican party at that time.

[00:26:09] And it was about half the, it was about a half the Republican caucus and and they'd have lunch every Wednesday and they'd talk about what they want to do on issues. And it was an interesting group. They held a balance of power in a Senate at that point. But not anymore.

[00:26:21] Bob Gatty: No, not anymore. . Yeah. One of the guys I worked for in, in the first guy I worked for on the Hill was a Republican, and he belonged to the Wednesday group. But that was a tough thing. I had a switch he sent me to, stand in for him at a debate before a bunch of seniors and a bunch of retired people.

[00:26:45] And the issue of the day was whether or not there would be a Social security increase, pay increase. And the Republican position was no, that it would cause inflation to increase. And so I had to argue that [00:27:00] position. On his behalf before these. Old people like me now.

[00:27:11] Yeah. And I gave the Republican position and somebody stood up and said what do you think? And how do you feel? And I said I'm not here to talk about me. I'm not running. The guy I work for is running and this is his position. And so the guy that was running against him, his name was Charlie Yates, he was a young millionaire, very attractive, very well spoken, should have been the congressman, in my opinion.

[00:27:36] Anyway afterwards, he, he said to me, Hey, if I win, you want a job, ? I said, Hell yeah, I'll do that. did he. The guy I worked for, Ed Forsythe, he won , but I quit after that, real shortly after that. And went to work for Jim Florio, who became ended up becoming governor of New Jersey. Sadly, he [00:28:00] just passed away a couple weeks ago.

[00:28:02] Arthur Hill: Yeah, 

[00:28:02] Bob Gatty: at a advanced stage. 

[00:28:05] Arthur Hill: I see we got a pretty big social security increase coming up in a couple of months. 

[00:28:09] Bob Gatty: Yeah, that'll be a good thing. Yeah. But the Republicans are gonna complain it's gonna affect inflation. 

[00:28:16] Arthur Hill: I'm surprised they haven't yet. 

[00:28:19] Bob Gatty: I am too.

[00:28:20] Of course. They'll wait until the election's over . 

[00:28:23] Robert Thompson: The one thing that social security and Medicare do not have going for them is they don't really have the lobbyists with money. The only group that I can think of that pushes for social security, Medicare is AARP. . And there is a pundit in Georgia that has called the AARP, a radical extreme organization.

[00:28:42] We are in a day and time that AARP is a radical organization, that's sad. Versus what you've got with these military contracts, the lobbyists and all these other special interests the oil and gas industry, right? They're the ones that are pouring money into the lobbyists and all of these elections.

[00:28:59] [00:29:00] We need to find good lobbyists for Social security, Medicare. My mother is an example. She is on social security right now. She's about to get a raise, but she's probably gonna go to the ballot and vote Republican. I can't get it 

[00:29:12] Bob Gatty: hit her in the head, man. Geez-o- flip . She can't do that. Wow.

[00:29:19] Arthur Hill: Maybe you could get her a vote absentee and then fill in her ballot. . 

[00:29:23] Robert Thompson: That's it. No, then, Kim's gonna lock me up. Can't do voter for all 

[00:29:28] Arthur Hill: true . 

[00:29:31] Bob Gatty: You got anything else? Arthur. 

[00:29:33] Arthur Hill: Nope. I'm excited about I'll next. I'll give you a report on Beasley next time. Next time you'll know, right? 

[00:29:39] Bob Gatty: Yeah, next time. Next time. Next time. We'll know what all this we'll, lots to talk about. Yeah. Whether we have something to moan and groan about or something to be happy about.

[00:29:52] All right, guys. We'll see you next time. All right. Take care. 

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